SPC MD 671

MD 0671 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA Mesoscale Discussion 0671 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Fri May 08 2026 Areas affected...the western Florida Panhandle and adjacent portions of southern Alabama and Georgia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 081930Z - 082200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...There appears at least some potential for ongoing thunderstorms overspreading the western Florida Panhandle to intensify while approaching the Florida Big Bend and adjacent southwestern Georgia vicinity by 6-7 PM EDT. It is not certain that this will require a severe weather watch, but trends continue to be monitored. DISCUSSION...A couple of subtle, low-amplitude perturbations are progressing through the moderately strong, broadly confluent westerly mid/upper flow across the north central through northeastern Gulf coast vicinity. Downstream of the lead wave, forcing for ascent, focused within lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, has maintained a fairly vigorous storm occasionally exhibiting supercell structure. This has recently propagated into the western Florida Panhandle, with an easterly mean motion around 35 kt, accompanied by at least small hail, based on mesh data, and probably locally strong surface gusts. This still appears to be rooted above a residual stable boundary layer to the cool side of a weakening surface frontal zone, with little appreciable recent destabilization ongoing across the western Florida Panhandle. However, if forcing for ascent is sufficient to maintain this cell, there does appear potential for convection to acquire at least somewhat more unstable updraft inflow as it approaches the Florida Big Bend region and adjacent portions of southwestern Georgia toward 22-23Z. This could lead to intensification supportive of increasing risk for severe hail and wind. ..Kerr/Smith.. 05/08/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB... LAT...LON 30828651 31118656 31088504 31048436 30358464 30488581 30548663 30828651 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more