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  "path": "/products/md/md0641.html",
  "publishedAt": "2026-05-04T23:36:02.000Z",
  "site": "https://www.spc.noaa.gov",
  "tags": [
    "Read more"
  ],
  "textContent": "MD 0641 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI...SOUTHEASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS\n\n\n\n\n    Mesoscale Discussion 0641\n    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK\n    0634 PM CDT Mon May 04 2026\n\n    Areas affected...portions of NORTH-central Missouri...southeastern\n    iowa and northwestern Illinois\n\n    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible\n\n    Valid 042334Z - 050100Z\n\n    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent\n\n    SUMMARY...Isolated convective development along the cold front may\n    continue to deepen into this evening. Damaging gusts and some hail\n    will be possible with clusters or transient supercells. The need for\n    a WW is uncertain.\n\n    DISCUSSION...As of 2330 UTC visible and radar imagery showed initial\n    thunderstorm development was underway along western portions of the\n    slow-moving cold front across southern IA and northern MO.\n    Downstream of the front, a warm, but marginally moist air mass\n    exists with 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear\n    overspreading the warm sector is sufficient for storm organization\n    with clusters and transient supercells possible. Given the steep\n    lapse rates in the low and mid-levels (8-9 C/km), damaging gusts are\n    possible. The degree of buoyancy could also support some hail risk\n    with the stronger updrafts.\n\n    It remains very unclear if these initial storms will survive given\n    the presence of dry air throughout the boundary layer immediately\n    ahead of the front. Radar trends support this with updrafts and\n    reflectively cores being quite small. However, if sufficient\n    convection is able to develop and maintain, the more unstable air\n    mass farther south could support a severe risk ahead of the cold\n    front as depicted by some CAMs this evening. Given the potential for\n    some damaging gusts and hail, a WW is possible but highly uncertain.\n\n    ..Lyons/Hart.. 05/04/2026\n\n    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...\n\n    ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...\n\n    LAT...LON   40489333 41169166 40839071 40479061 39689084 38929087\n                38759131 38139380 38349447 38779455 39289454 39759436\n                40489333\n\n    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH\n    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH\n    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN\n\n\n\nRead more",
  "title": "SPC MD 641"
}