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"path": "/products/md/md0636.html",
"publishedAt": "2026-05-02T18:40:03.000Z",
"site": "https://www.spc.noaa.gov",
"tags": [
"Read more"
],
"textContent": "MD 0636 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 183... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA\n\n\n\n\n Mesoscale Discussion 0636\n NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK\n 1257 PM CDT Sat May 02 2026\n\n Areas affected...portions of North and Central Florida\n\n Concerning...Tornado Watch 183...\n\n Valid 021757Z - 021930Z\n\n The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 183 continues.\n\n SUMMARY...The potential for severe/damaging wind gusts and a couple\n of tornadoes continues across Tornado Watch 183.\n\n DISCUSSION...A band of thunderstorms along a surface cold front\n extending from near the Ocala National Forest southwestward into the\n eastern Gulf has produced a few measured wind gusts in the 45-55 mph\n range over the past 1-2 hours. Continued insolation amid surface\n dewpoints near 70 F is yielding 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE across much of\n the Florida Peninsula ahead of this line. Strong effective bulk\n shear of 40-50+ kts (per latest mesoanalysis) will continue to\n promote storm organization, with shear vectors oriented parallel to\n the cold front favoring a linear storm mode. The presence of some\n mid-level dry air (evident in recent TPA/SRQ ACARS profiles) as well\n as increasingly steep low-level lapse rates will continue to support\n the potential for strong to severe wind gusts. Despite largely\n veered surface winds, a couple of tornadoes also remain possible\n given modestly-favorable low-level shear profiles. The greatest\n severe potential will likely exist with any line segments that\n attain a more favorable north-south orientation given generally\n westerly shear vectors. Small to marginally severe hail may also\n occur with any stronger updrafts, especially any persistent,\n more-discrete updrafts forming ahead of the main line.\n\n ..Chalmers.. 05/02/2026\n\n ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...\n\n ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...\n\n LAT...LON 28788275 29458181 29648141 29648104 29358087 28528044\n 28228041 27858074 27628142 27338236 27458282 27918296\n 28788275\n\n MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH\n MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH\n MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN\n\n\n\nRead more",
"title": "SPC MD 636"
}