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  "path": "/products/md/md0631.html",
  "publishedAt": "2026-05-01T07:02:03.000Z",
  "site": "https://www.spc.noaa.gov",
  "tags": [
    "Read more"
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  "textContent": "MD 0631 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TX\n\n\n\n\n    Mesoscale Discussion 0631\n    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK\n    0100 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026\n\n    Areas affected...Parts of south-central TX\n\n    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely\n\n    Valid 010600Z - 010830Z\n\n    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent\n\n    SUMMARY...A threat for isolated hail and damaging gusts will\n    continue overnight.\n\n    DISCUSSION...Strong thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of\n    south-central TX as of 06 UTC, with occasional elevated supercells\n    noted. This activity continues to develop north of a nearly\n    stationary surface front, and may persist through much of the\n    overnight as a mid/upper-level shortwave trough approaches the\n    region from northern Mexico.\n\n    While midlevel lapse rates (as observed in the 00Z CRP sounding and\n    analyzed by the RAP) are not particularly steep, rich moisture above\n    the frontal inversion is supporting MUCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg where\n    storms are ongoing. Strong mid/upper-level westerly flow is\n    resulting in effective shear of 60+ kt, more than sufficient for\n    organized convection. Large hail and localized damaging gusts will\n    continue to be possible with the strongest storms overnight. A\n    recent elevated storm with hail near Houston suggests that some\n    severe potential may extend farther north than analyzed MUCAPE would\n    indicate, though storms that track farther south (closer to the\n    front) will have access to stronger buoyancy, and perhaps a\n    localized very large hail threat.\n\n    ..Dean/Mosier.. 05/01/2026\n\n    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...\n\n    ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...\n\n    LAT...LON   29270104 29689823 29629692 29399618 29059603 28609608\n                28299670 28009753 27769866 27729927 27680001 29270104\n\n    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH\n    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN\n\n\n\nRead more",
  "title": "SPC MD 631"
}