SPC MD 630

MD 0630 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS Mesoscale Discussion 0630 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0823 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026 Areas affected...portions of southwestern and south-central Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 010123Z - 010400Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A localized wind and large hail threat will be possible through late this evening as supercells move out of Mexico across the Rio Grande. DISCUSSION...Storms are noted to be occasionally intense on satellite and radar across the eastern Sierra Madre in Mexico this evening. Hi-res CAM guidance suggests that a few of these storms may persist and move across the Rio Grande into the Edwards Plateau region and perhaps portions of south-central Texas. The air mass across southern Texas is moderately unstable with strong deep layer shear ahead of the ejecting wave to the west across Baja California. Storms would likely be elevated in nature, given diurnal inversion layer, with the main hazards being large hail and strong to severe wind. Given some uncertainty in thunderstorm maintenance and the localized nature of this threat, a watch remains uncertain. Trends will be monitored through the evening. ..Thornton/Hart.. 05/01/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX... LAT...LON 28480052 28609975 28609861 28119815 27789836 27509875 27409958 27449973 28480052 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more