SPC MD 627

MD 0627 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL TEXAS Mesoscale Discussion 0627 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026 Areas affected...Central Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 301549Z - 301745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated occurrences of marginally severe hail are possible this morning. A watch is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...Elevated thunderstorms ongoing across portions of the Concho Valley and Hill Country have exhibited episodic intensification with volumetric radar data indicating some mid-level rotation with the strongest storms. The 12z DRT sounding suggests that convection is likely rooted around 850 mb, with modestly steep mid-level lapse rates of around 7.5 degrees C/km contributing to MUCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg, at least in the Edwards Plateau region. However, more recent RAP-based forecast soundings suggest that parcel buoyancy is considerably weaker (500-1000 J/kg) farther east within the immediate inflow region of the ongoing storms, which may tend to limit the overall intensity of that convective regime. Nonetheless, the presence of 55-65 kt of effective bulk shear will be supportive of transient supercell structures, potentially capable of marginally severe hail. Current thinking is that any severe weather threat is expected to remain too limited in areal coverage and magnitude to warrant the issuance of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch. ..Mead.. 04/30/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 31160059 31510028 31579831 31639608 31219572 30589592 30289822 30620024 31160059 MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more