SPC MD 615

MD 0615 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST TEXAS...FAR SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA Mesoscale Discussion 0615 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026 Areas affected...northeast Texas...far southwest Arkansas...and northwest Louisiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 291521Z - 291715Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Severe-weather potential is expected to increase across the discussion area this morning with the primary hazards being large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts. Convective trends are being monitored for a possible watch. DISCUSSION...A small cluster of elevated thunderstorms has persisted this morning in far northeast TX, west of Texarkana, with recent intensification noted in a couple of the cells. While forcing for ascent remains nebulous, the 12z FWD sounding sampled a weakly capped and strongly unstable environment (MUCAPE of 3000-3500 J/kg) for parcels lifted from around 850 mb. Moreover, the kinematic environment from that sounding featured an effective bulk shear magnitude of 60+ kt, more than supportive of supercell storm modes, especially given the strong buoyancy. A number of CAMs suggest the continued intensification of the ongoing storms into supercells by late morning or early afternoon with subsequent upscale growth into a surface-based line of storms as the activity crosses the surface cold front and roots in the very moist and unstable air mass south of the boundary. In that scenario, large to very large hail (2-3" in diameter) will be the primary hazard initially, with damaging wind gusts becoming more likely as storms become surface based, and a more organized cold pool can develop. Convective trends are being monitored for further storm intensification, which would necessitate a watch issuance. ..Mead.. 04/29/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD... LAT...LON 33319645 33769569 33519420 32679265 32239214 31709242 31529311 31399369 31639434 32289576 32649628 33319645 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more