SPC MD 593

MD 0593 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS Mesoscale Discussion 0593 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026 Areas affected...northeast Oklahoma into southern Missouri and northern Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 281501Z - 281700Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to increase in areal coverage across the discussion area this morning. Large hail will be the primary hazard initially, with damaging wind potential increasing this afternoon. A Severe Thunderstorm watch will likely be required to address this severe weather threat. DISCUSSION...Recent radar trends indicate thunderstorms gradually increasing in coverage across portions of eastern OK, driven largely by a low-level warm advection regime occurring to the north of a surface boundary stalled across southeast OK into central AR. RAP proximity soundings suggest the developing storms are rooted in a moist layer centered around 850 mb, with steep mid-level lapse rates contributing to MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Water vapor imagery shows a vigorous short-wave trough moving into western KS this morning with an area of downstream, implied forcing for ascent progressively overspreading the discussion area over the next several hours. That combined with the available reservoir of moderate, elevated instability, and relatively strong cloud-bearing shear will support the potential for elevated supercells capable of large hail initially. Some cloud breaks (evident in visible satellite) may allow for a subset of the elevated storms to become surface-based by afternoon, at which point, a damaging wind threat would increase. ..Mead/Guyer.. 04/28/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA... LAT...LON 35769576 36959488 37869282 37869097 36649096 36149149 35549395 35169505 35769576 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more