SPC MD 594

MD 0594 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA Mesoscale Discussion 0594 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026 Areas affected...central parts of Mississippi and Alabama Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 281550Z - 281745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...The potential for damaging winds and large hail is expected to increase across the area this afternoon. Convective trends are being monitored for a possible Severe Thunderstorm Watch. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have persisted through much of the morning across the discussion area with that activity being driven by modest low-level warm advection occurring along and to the north of an outflow boundary extending from around Greenwood, MS to north of Selma and Montgomery in Alabama. The 12z JAN sounding revealed the eastern edge of the elevated-mixed layer has spread east into the lower MS Valley, which when coupled with a moist boundary layer is resulting in estimated MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg as of 15z. The 12z CAMs offer various scenarios with respect specific details on thunderstorm evolution today. Some solutions suggest in situ storm intensification/coalescence into smaller, forward propagating complexes, while others indicate the primary severe weather threat being associated with a complex of storms arriving from the ArkLaTex later today. Regardless, the general notion is for a gradual increase in surface-based storm coverage and intensity in the vicinity of the outflow boundary this afternoon. Relatively strong, mid/upper-level flow evident in the 12z JAN/BMX soundings will support the potential for supercells and bowing structures capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. The tornado threat is somewhat conditional and likely tied to any storms that can favorably interact with the outflow boundary. ..Mead/Guyer.. 04/28/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 32979029 33789030 33978939 33648785 33218626 32428618 32398761 32748957 32979029 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more