SPC MD 592

MD 0592 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 168... FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA Mesoscale Discussion 0592 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0933 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026 Areas affected...south-central Oklahoma and north-central Texas into central and southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 168... Valid 281433Z - 281630Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 168 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in areal coverage across the discussion area this morning with all severe-weather hazards becoming possible. Convective trends are being monitored for an additional downstream watch. DISCUSSION...As of 14:20z, mosaic radar data showed thunderstorms gradually increasing in coverage across south-central OK and north-central TX with the strongest storm being a supercell over Montague County, TX. That storm is located very near or just to the south of a warm front that extends from low pressure over western north Texas east-northeast into central AR. The south of that boundary, visible satellite shows deepening moist convection near and to the southeast of the Dallas-Ft. Worth metroplex. The 12z FWD sounding sampled a very moist boundary layer surmounted by steep mid-level lapse rates, yielding MLCAPE of 3500 J/kg. The cap was not overly strong, and latest model guidance suggests a gradual increase in thunderstorm activity this morning from the vicinity of the ongoing storms over south-central OK and north-central TX eastward toward the ArkLaTex. Regional 12z soundings sampled the presence of strong, mid/upper-level winds, which will combine with the moderate to strong instability to support higher-order storm modes, including supercells and bowing structures capable of large to very large hail and damaging winds as the primary hazards. The greatest potential for a few tornadoes will exist with storms that can favorably interact with the warm front in the area. ..Mead/Guyer.. 04/28/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 33969822 35109776 34979227 34469194 33739182 32829211 32849425 33029630 33259750 33489807 33969822 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more