SPC MD 590

MD 0590 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA Mesoscale Discussion 0590 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026 Areas affected...northwest Texas into southwest/southern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 280949Z - 281245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity through the morning hours, with isolated damaging hail possible. A watch may be required. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a warm front moving northward into northwest TX and across the Red River, with 68-70 F dewpoints to the south. Both IR imagery and GPS water vapor sensors indicate a rapid northward surge of moisture, with PWAT values increasing from 0.55 to over 1.20" in about 2 hours. Already, thunderstorms have developed 1-2 hours ahead of schedule southeast of LBB, and a gradual increase has been seen in storm intensity. Southerly winds just off the surface will raise elevated instability values north of the warm front over the next several hours. Some forecast soundings indicate MUCAPE over 4000 J/kg, though effective value will depend on moisture depth/quality in the elevated slab/layer. Clearly, the environment will favor hail regardless, with deep-layer effective shear over 60 kt, along with steep lapse rates aloft and ample/increasing moisture. Uncertainty exists as to how far north severe hail cells will develop, but consensus is at least into southern OK. Significant hail over 2.00" diameter is quite possible, perhaps larger should sustained elevated supercells develop as depicted by some models. As such, a watch will need to be considered this morning. ..Jewell/Gleason.. 04/28/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB... LAT...LON 33110118 33500114 34600015 35099890 35319756 35049663 34489661 34189678 33759729 33199918 33000083 33110118 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more