SPC MD 551

MD 0551 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA Mesoscale Discussion 0551 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026 Areas affected...North-central and Northeast Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 262200Z - 270000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Convective initiation will be possible this evening across north-central Oklahoma. If this takes place, a tornado threat will become likely. Tornado watch issuance is anticipated over the next hour. DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a very moist airmass in place over much of Oklahoma with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F. A surface trough is oriented from southwest to northeast across north-central Oklahoma, where low-level convergence is maximized. Along this zone, satellite imagery shows an agitated field of cumulus along the I-35 corridor in northern Oklahoma. To the east of the trough, the air is very unstable with the RAP showing MLCAPE in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. In addition, a strong wind field is in place with 0-6 km shear estimated by the RAP to be in the 35 to 45 knot range. While large-scale ascent does not look to be strong near the surface trough, low-level convergence could be enough to initiate convection at some point this evening. If this where to occur, then rapid supercell development would be expected, and a tornado threat would become likely. Large hail and severe wind gusts would also be likely. ..Broyles/Leitman.. 04/26/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... LAT...LON 36989591 36849528 36529508 36279509 36009522 35899582 35909748 35899817 36069853 36329864 36719855 36999816 36989735 36989591 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-145 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more