SPC MD 549

MD 0549 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 149... FOR PARTS OF EASTERN KS Mesoscale Discussion 0549 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026 Areas affected...parts of eastern KS Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 149... Valid 261923Z - 262100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 149 continues. SUMMARY...A threat for severe hail and wind will spread eastward across eastern Kansas this afternoon, with some increase in damaging-wind potential possible with time. Tornado potential may also gradually increase with time, especially along the southeastern periphery of ongoing storms. DISCUSSION...A compact MCS is moving across eastern KS early this afternoon. This system has been anchored by an elevated supercell on its southern end, which earlier produced hail to at least golf ball size and 60-70 mph winds. A well-defined bow echo and evidence of a rear-inflow jet have been noted from KTWX, though lingering low-level stability has likely hampered potential for more widespread damaging winds this far. Some heating has occurred downstream of this system, though additional heating may be muted across northeast KS due to expanding anvil cirrus. Any additional heating combined with gradual low-level moistening will aid in continued destabilization, with preconvective MUCAPE potentially increasing above 1000 J/kg from northeast KS into northwest MO, while MLCAPE values may increase to near/above 1500-2000 J/kg across east-central to southeast KS. Increasing deep-layer flow/shear associated with an approaching mid/upper-level shortwave trough will continue to favor organized convection through the afternoon. In the short-term, this system will continue to pose a threat of severe hail and wind as it moves eastward, with some increase in damaging-wind potential possible. With time, there may be some tendency for east-southeastward expansion or propagation into the stronger instability across east-central/southeast KS. Some backbuilding will also be possible along the trailing outflow, aided by a modest southerly low-level jet. Such a trend could be accompanied by an increasing potential for surface-based convection and a gradually increasing tornado threat, in addition to continued hail/wind potential. Trends will continue to be monitored regarding the need for potential Tornado Watch issuance later this afternoon. ..Dean/Guyer.. 04/26/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 39589640 39709558 39489489 38629464 37889464 37519474 37249539 37239565 37329626 37429654 37669699 37829721 38169706 38819629 39589640 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more