SPC MD 534

MD 0534 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 143... FOR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST KANSAS Mesoscale Discussion 0534 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0621 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026 Areas affected...Southeast Nebraska and northeast Kansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 143... Valid 252321Z - 260045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 143 continues. SUMMARY...A severe hail and wind threat continues for northern portions of WW 134, but thunderstorm intensity downstream into southeast Nebraska and northeast Kansas is uncertain. Trends are being monitored for the need for additional watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, a collection of discrete cells and a convective band have shown periodic intensification across northern KS and southern NE. Occasional nickel to quarter sized hail reports and sporadic gusts between 60-70 mph have been noted over the past hour, and regional VWPs continue to sample favorable wind profiles for maintenance of strong/severe convection. These trends suggest that the threat for severe hail/wind should continue for the next hour or so. However, latest surface observations show downstream temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s with dewpoints between 45-55 F. These observations support recent RAP mesoanalyses that depict increasing inhibition and diminishing MLCAPE across southeast NE and northeast KS. These thermodynamic conditions cast uncertainty on downstream convective intensity. While the favorable kinematic environment may compensate for the thermodynamic deficiencies, the expectation is that this activity will generally weaken with eastward extent after 00 UTC. Downstream watch issuance will be considered if a weakening trend is not observed over the next hour or so. ..Moore.. 04/25/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID... LAT...LON 39089804 39319791 39819753 40829708 41259652 41279603 40989573 40389551 39979546 39379565 39069604 38909650 38939770 38939798 39089804 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more