SPC MD 523

MD 0523 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI Mesoscale Discussion 0523 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026 Areas affected...far southern Arkansas...northeast Louisiana...southwest Mississippi Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 250032Z - 250230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms near an outflow boundary may produce brief periods of marginal hail this evening from southern Arkansas into northern Louisiana and southwest Mississippi. DISCUSSION...An outflow boundary continues to push southward across northern LA and into southwest MS. This boundary is undercutting a very moist and unstable air mass, with periodic strong to marginally severe storms at times. Forcing for ascent is generally limited to this shallow boundary, as southwesterly boundary layer winds are not particularly strong. For example, 15-20 kt at 850 mb on area VWPs. However, given such strong instability on nearby 00Z soundings, the undercutting action/lift of the outflow boundary may be enough for a couple more hours of marginal severe risk, including hail at or above 1.00" and localized strong gusts. Given the scattered and likely short-lived nature of these cells, a watch is not anticipated. ..Jewell/Leitman.. 04/25/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 32359326 32759334 33569330 33609273 32239066 31838994 31628956 31158965 31038980 31079061 31219139 31659233 31939293 32359326 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more