SPC MD 517

MD 0517 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...ARKLATEX Mesoscale Discussion 0517 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026 Areas affected...Southeast Oklahoma...ArkLaTex Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 241820Z - 242015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A watch is likely for parts of the ArkLaTex this afternoon. Timing of development is not certain, but a supercell or two would be possible. Large/very-large hail and tornadoes are the main hazards. DISCUSSION...Towering cumulus are increasing in southeast Oklahoma into the ArkLaTex. Temperatures are just now reaching the mid/upper 70s F in this region which may mean robust development will take another hour or two. The environment is becoming increasingly favorable for severe convection, however. 35-40 kts of shear and MLCAPE reaching 2000-2500 J/kg will promote supercells capable of large/very-large hail and tornadoes. As low-level winds are expected to remain rather modest, the tornado threat will depend on a right-moving supercell (motion that would maximize warm-sector residence time) interacting with backed surface flow near the outflow boundary. Storms that cannot root in the warm sector will tend to move more east/east-northeast into the cooler air. The tornado threat would be less, but the hail concern would remain. ..Wendt.. 04/24/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD... LAT...LON 32939426 33299495 34199562 34619555 34649495 34259436 33709410 33069403 32929405 32939426 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more