SPC MD 519

MD 0519 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL MS...NORTHERN LA...AND FAR SOUTHERN AR Mesoscale Discussion 0519 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026 Areas affected...Parts of central MS...northern LA...and far southern AR Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 241936Z - 242130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Gradual thunderstorm intensification is expected through the late afternoon into early evening. The primary concerns will be damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail. The need for a watch in the near term is uncertain, though trends are being monitored. DISCUSSION...Ahead of a remnant/weakened MCS moving into the ArkLaMiss, visible satellite imagery indicates an increasingly unstable PBL -- as temperatures warm into the lower 80s amid upper 60s dewpoints. Despite mostly weak/anafrontal convection thus far, thunderstorms are gradually increasing in coverage along the leading gust front and into the unstable air. This trend is expected to continue into the late afternoon, as deep-layer shear vectors become slightly more line-orthogonal. Steep midlevel lapse rates (8.4 C/km sampled by the SHV 18Z sounding) atop the destabilizing PBL should support gradual intensification of thunderstorms. Around 40 kt of effective shear will favor organized cells/clusters with an accompanying risk of severe hail and locally damaging gusts. However, minimal large-scale forcing for ascent and lingering inhibition at the base of the EML casts uncertainty on the overall severe risk in the near term (over the next 2-3 hours). With time, high-resolution guidance is in relatively good agreement that storms will increase in coverage with southward extent, and congealing cold pools would promote an increasing damaging-wind risk. It is unclear if a watch will be needed in the near-term, though convective trends are being monitored. ..Weinman/Guyer.. 04/24/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 33089316 33349293 33429262 33279187 33359100 33479070 33908987 33988976 34038943 33948900 33658869 33218864 32718876 32328898 32038941 31799007 31709084 31769178 32049259 32299295 32569318 33089316 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more