SPC MD 516

MD 0516 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA Mesoscale Discussion 0516 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026 Areas affected...South-central Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 241650Z - 241845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Supercells capable of large/very-large hail and a couple of tornadoes will be possible this afternoon. A watch is likely, but timing remains uncertain. Convective trends will be monitored. DISCUSSION...Deepening cumulus has been noted on visible satellite over the last 30-45 minutes in the vicinity of Ada. This is occurring just northeast of a surface low near Wichita Falls. Upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints in south-central Oklahoma suggest very limited MLCIN when modifying the 12Z OUN sounding. That said, large-scale ascent is not strong and the surface low has weakened slightly over the last hour. It is not clear that these initial attempts at initiation will be sustained. It will likely take additional surface heating (perhaps into the low 80s F) for updrafts to mature. 35-45 kts of effective shear and steep mid-level lapse rates will favor supercells capable of large to very-large hail. Though low-level winds are not that strong, a tornado risk will likely accompany any discrete convection near the outflow boundary as well. Convective trends will continued to be monitored, but a watch is likely this afternoon. ..Wendt.. 04/24/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 33859569 33779584 33709626 33739717 33919770 34329787 34709797 34989762 35199654 35139601 34749566 34329566 33859569 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more