SPC MD 515

MD 0515 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 140... FOR SOUTHERN MISSOURI...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA Mesoscale Discussion 0515 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026 Areas affected...Southern Missouri...northwest Arkansas and northeast Oklahoma Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 140... Valid 240700Z - 240830Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 140 continues. SUMMARY...A line of strong-isolated severe storms will persist for the next couple of hours while spreading eastward across southern Missouri and southeastward across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. DISCUSSION...Convection has evolved into an extensive line across north central and northeast OK into southwest MO and extreme northwest AR. The more north-south part of the line in southwest MO is oriented more orthogonal to the deep-layer shear vectors, suggesting upright convection may remain closely tied to the leading edge of the cold pool. Severe potential will persist in the corridor where the north-south segment intersects the more east-west outflow, though decreasing buoyancy with eastward extent casts some doubt on the duration and magnitude of the severe threat. Farther west, an extensive cold pool has sagged south of the primary convection in OK, where a 50+ kt low-level jet is supporting renewed storm development atop the cold pool. Overall, the magnitude of the wind/hail threat should slowly decrease over time. ..Thompson.. 04/24/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA... LAT...LON 35819253 35509365 35339455 35309522 35459609 35629640 35899642 36169538 36459424 36879352 37549316 37699286 37759211 37579169 36689162 35819253 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more