SPC MD 499

MD 0499 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN INDIANA INTO MUCH OF OHIO Mesoscale Discussion 0499 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0507 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026 Areas affected...portions of eastern Indiana into much of Ohio Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 222207Z - 230000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to pose a risk for gusty winds and marginally severe hail across much of Ohio and portions of eastern Indiana over the next couple of hours. Waning intensity is then expected into the evening hours. DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar imagery depicts scattered thunderstorms ongoing across much of northwestern/central Ohio and eastern Indiana, with several reports of marginally severe hail noted over the past 1-2 hours. Continued diurnal heating is supporting 500-1000+ J/kg MLCAPE, which will continue to promote strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms across the region. While upper-level forcing remains nebulous, 20-30 kts of effective bulk shear (per latest mesoanalysis) and modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will continue to support the potential for small to marginally severe hail with the strongest cores. Gusty winds also remain possible with ongoing storms owing to steep low-level lapse rates of 8.5-9.0 C/km. Thunderstorm intensity is then anticipated to gradually decrease later this evening owing to low-level nocturnal stabilization. Given the limited magnitude of the hail/wind risk, watch issuance remains unlikely. ..Chalmers/Hart.. 04/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND... LAT...LON 40258557 40748570 41518463 41518290 41108190 40318117 39808124 39358179 39238291 39798463 40258557 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more