SPC MD 496

MD 0496 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MI...NORTHERN IN...AND NORTHWEST OH Mesoscale Discussion 0496 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026 Areas affected...far southern Lower MI...northern IN...and northwest OH Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 221637Z - 221900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage will increase over the next couple of hours, and storms will persist into early evening. The strongest storms may produce marginally severe hail near 1 inch diameter and locally strong gusts. A watch is not currently expected. DISCUSSION...An isolated thunderstorm over southeast Lake Michigan has persisted over the past hour as it slowly approaches the MI/IN coast. During this time, MRMS MESH has estimated hail to near 1 inch. Most recently, 5 and 7 km CAPPI has decreased and echo tops have lowered. It is unclear if this storm will continue inland. If so, it could become reinvigorated as it moves into modestly better low-level moisture near a surface boundary extending west to east across far southern Lower MI/northern IN and northwest OH. Additional storm development is expected near/south of this surface boundary over the next couple of hours as strong heating continues. Steepened low-level lapse rates may support locally strong gusts with this activity. Additionally, cool temperature aloft are supporting modest midlevel lapse rates, fostering MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Strengthening northwesterly flow aloft may aid in a few better organized cells capable of producing marginally severe hail through early evening. Given the overall modest environment, a severe thunderstorm watch is not currently expected. ..Leitman/Mosier.. 04/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT... LAT...LON 41868712 42048692 42258625 42318524 42308506 42238434 41998372 41738331 41508318 40638316 40268362 40158458 40348532 40858626 41368683 41758706 41868712 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more