SPC MD 492

MD 0492 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EDWARDS PLATEAU AND TEXAS HILL COUNTRY Mesoscale Discussion 0492 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026 Areas affected...portions of Edwards Plateau and Texas Hill Country Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 181704Z - 181900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and occasional strong wind gusts are possible across portions of Texas Hill Country and the Concho Valley this afternoon/evening. Watch issuance appears unlikely at this time. DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms have developed across the southwestern portions of Edwards Plateau over the past hour, well north of a southward-moving surface cold front. RAP forecast soundings and latest mesoanalysis depict 500-1000+ J/kg MUCAPE with lifted parcel levels atop the frontal inversion, which will continue to favor robust updrafts with elevated convection. Coincident strong mid/upper level flow (evident within the SJT VAD profile) is contributing to 50-60 kts of effective bulk shear, sufficient for elevated supercells. With modestly steep mid-level lapse rates and elongated hodographs (noted via mesoanalysis and recent ACARS profiles from SAT), isolated large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. While convection will remain elevated, occasional strong wind gusts may be possible with stronger downdrafts. Watch issuance appears unlikely at this time given the expectation for the threat coverage/magnitude to remain limited. ..Chalmers/Hart.. 04/18/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 31630043 31869978 31999887 31959826 31739766 31249734 30719749 30409800 30119863 29899966 29880025 29970070 30180105 30370121 30660121 30960104 31310078 31630043 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more