SPC MD 471

MD 0471 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR UPSTATE NEW YORK AND VERMONT Mesoscale Discussion 0471 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0550 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Areas affected...Upstate New York and Vermont Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 162250Z - 170015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms are possible this evening across upstate New York and into Vermont. The need for a watch is uncertain, but this area will be monitored closely over the next 1-2 hours. DISCUSSION...A couple of individual storms/small clusters have formed and moved eastward into upstate NY during the past 30-60 minutes, just ahead of a cold front and on the east edge of the thicker clouds. Surface temperatures have peaked in the low 80s to the south of a diffuse baroclinic zone near the CWA border for Albany and Burlington, where surface dewpoints have held near 60 F. This is contributing to moderate buoyancy across upstate NY ahead of the ongoing storms. Regional VWPs show relatively long hodographs that will favor supercell potential, and enough low-level shear for a low-end tornado threat. Otherwise, isolated wind damage and large hail will be the main threats. It is not clear if storm coverage/intensity will increase from what is already observed, so the need for a watch is still uncertain. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 04/16/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM... LAT...LON 44337413 44417378 44427344 44187291 43597275 43377284 43217303 43137363 43157455 43237500 43487514 43847490 44117465 44337413 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more