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  "path": "/products/md/md0419.html",
  "publishedAt": "2026-04-14T19:02:02.000Z",
  "site": "https://www.spc.noaa.gov",
  "tags": [
    "Read more"
  ],
  "textContent": "MD 0419 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN IA...SOUTHERN WI...AND NORTHERN IL\n\n\n\n\n    Mesoscale Discussion 0419\n    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK\n    1256 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026\n\n    Areas affected...Parts of central/eastern IA...southern WI...and\n    northern IL\n\n    Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely\n\n    Valid 141756Z - 142000Z\n\n    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent\n\n    SUMMARY...The risk of supercells capable of producing several\n    tornadoes (some strong to intense), giant hail, and severe wind\n    gusts will increase by around 19-22Z. A tornado watch is likely\n    within the next couple hours.\n\n    DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis depicts a quasi-stationary\n    boundary extending from central/northern IA into southern/central\n    WI, with an additional composite outflow boundary farther south from\n    northeast IA into northern IL. Over the next few hours, continued\n    diurnal heating of a moist air mass (upper 60s dewpoints) should\n    erode remaining inhibition at the base a substantial EML, resulting\n    in the development of strong surface-based buoyancy (upwards of\n    3000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE). As this occurs, initial thunderstorm\n    development is expected across parts of central/eastern IA near the\n    intersecting boundaries by around 19-22Z -- aided by a subtle\n    frontal wave tracking eastward along the quasi-stationary boundary.\n\n    The strongly unstable air mass coupled with 40-50 kt of effective\n    shear will favor rapid thunderstorm organization/intensification\n    into semi-discrete supercells and organized clusters. Initially,\n    very large to giant hail (2-3+ inches in diameter) and severe wind\n    gusts will be the main concern with potentially splitting supercells\n    -- given a mostly straight hodograph. However, a south-southwesterly\n    low-level jet will strengthen across the area later this afternoon\n    into the evening and likely favor a transition to dominant\n    right-moving supercells with a quickly increasing tornado risk. The\n    strong buoyancy and 200-300+ m2/s2 effective SRH will support strong\n    to intense tornadoes with any longer-lived supercells, along with a\n    continued risk of giant hail and severe gusts. Eventually,\n    thunderstorms may have a tendency of growing upscale into clusters\n    with eastward extent, which will yield an increasing risk of\n    damaging wind swaths.\n\n    A tornado watch will be issued within the next couple hours.\n\n    ..Weinman/Gleason.. 04/14/2026\n\n    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...\n\n    ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...\n\n    LAT...LON   41219309 41419361 41849390 42349386 42679350 43349177\n                43819045 43798943 43548877 42948850 42438870 41938916\n                41309166 41219309\n\n    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH\n    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH\n    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN\n\n\n\nRead more",
  "title": "SPC MD 419"
}