SPC MD 389

MD 0389 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS Mesoscale Discussion 0389 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026 Areas affected...parts of central Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 121919Z - 122115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A couple of severe storms with potential to produce severe hail may gradually develop through 4-6 PM CDT. It is not yet clear that a severe weather watch will be needed, but trends will continue to be monitored for this possibility. DISCUSSION...Beneath the belt of 40-50 kt southwesterly 500 mb flow overspreading central Texas, deepening convective development is evident near and west of the I-35 corridor, from the Hill Country northward into areas just southwest of the Metroplex. Forcing for ascent downstream of a jet streak embedded within this regime may be aiding development, which appears focused within weak lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection on the northern/northeastern periphery of a plume of more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air. Boundary-layer moisture characterized by surface dew points near 70F appears to be contributing to CAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg, aided by increasing insolation in the wake of early day convection spreading northeast and east of the region. Given the strong deep-layer shear, it appears that a couple of supercell structures with potential to produce large hail may develop as scattered storms initiate over the next few hours. ..Kerr/Mosier.. 04/12/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 32179832 31869743 30189706 29889828 30429844 31599911 32179832 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more