SPC MD 369

MD 0369 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO...THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS Mesoscale Discussion 0369 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0422 PM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026 Areas affected...portions of far eastern New Mexico...the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles...into far southwestern Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 092122Z - 092315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered high-based convection may pose a risk for a strong to severe gust this evening. Severe coverage should be low and a WW is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...As of 2120 UTC, regional radar and visible imagery showed isolated to widely scattered high-based convection developing along a surface pressure trough/weak dryline over portions of the southern High Plains. Ample diurnal heating has steepened low-level lapse rates sufficient for weak destabilization amid limited boundary-layer moisture (30s and 40s F surface dewpoints). This is promoting deep inverted-v thermodynamic profiles beneath the buoyancy. Deep-layer shear is weak (generally less than 20 kt) suggesting storm organization and longevity will be rather limited. However, the dry sub-cloud layer and steep low-level lapse rates may promote strong downdraft accelerations. Sporadic severe gusts (55-70 mph range) are possible associated with dry microbursts in the stronger cores that can develop. Given the relatively limited spatial and temporal risk, a WW is unlikely. ..Lyons/Smith.. 04/09/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 33870359 35320307 36190276 37040150 37250096 37000073 36370082 35420125 34550177 34010228 33700268 33490300 33470332 33870359 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more