SPC MD 368

MD 0368 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON Mesoscale Discussion 0368 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 PM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026 Areas affected...Portions of northern California into Southwest Oregon Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 091904Z - 092100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts and small to marginally severe hail will be possible this afternoon. Limited storm coverage and intensity will likely preclude a watch. DISCUSSION...As an upper low approaches the northern California coast, an increase of mid-level ascent has led to deepening convection within the terrain. Deep-layer southerly flow has maintained moisture in the region and dewpoints have held in the low/mid 50s F in some areas. Where the greatest heating can occur (i.e., temperatures reaching into the low/mid 60s), MLCAPE of 500-750 J/kg can be expected. A few stronger cores have already pulsed up and down in intensity. The expectation is for additional storms, a couple strong to marginally severe, to form in the next several hours. Weaker effective shear (25-30 kts) will likely limit the overall severity of storms, however. ..Wendt/Gleason.. 04/09/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFR...STO...PQR...EKA... LAT...LON 39652334 41852430 43252389 43652296 43602242 43272223 42862246 42302297 41412284 40892274 40202270 39812285 39652334 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more