SPC MD 361

MD 0361 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY Mesoscale Discussion 0361 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0540 PM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026 Areas affected...portions of southeastern Texas into the lower Mississippi River Valley Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 042240Z - 050045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to continue across much of southeastern Texas and the lower Mississippi River Valley over the next few hours. A strong wind gust or two is possible. DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery depicts scattered to numerous thunderstorms ongoing from southeastern Texas into northern/central Louisiana and much of western Mississippi. Surface temperatures in the upper-70s to lower-80s and dewpoints in the mid-60s to near 70 F are supporting moderate buoyancy of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Moderate mid/upper-level flow is supporting only 20-30 kts of effective bulk shear, which is expected to limit storm organization through this evening. Given only modest low-level lapse rates of 6.5-7.0 C/km, the potential for strong wind gusts appears low, yet an isolated wind gust or two in the 45-55 mph range is possible. The greatest area of potential for a strong gust or two appears to be from northeastern Louisiana into central Mississippi where a weak mid-level disturbance is supporting locally greater effective shear (up to 35 kts per latest mesoanalysis), which promotes marginal storm organization. Given the limited nature of severe potential, watch issuance is unlikely. ..Chalmers/Smith.. 04/04/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX... LAT...LON 29659581 30419535 31339433 32499237 33209119 33709039 34058992 34368899 33988849 33318850 32378864 31678911 30968963 30339017 30149188 29779425 29459497 29429547 29519573 29659581 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more