SPC MD 337

MD 0337 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN Mesoscale Discussion 0337 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0511 PM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026 Areas affected...portions of east-central Illinois into central/northern Indiana and southern Lower Michigan Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 022211Z - 022345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A broken band of thunderstorms currently located across portions of east-central Illinois into southwestern Michigan will likely persist into early evening, with some potential for intensification. Watch issuance may be needed within the next hour, especially for southern Lower Michigan and northern Indiana. DISCUSSION...Some recent intensification has been evident with a broken band of thunderstorms stretching from east-central Illinois into southwestern Michigan, with a couple of areas of strengthening embedded rotation noted. Ahead of this line, temperatures have warmed to the mid-70s across portions of central/northern Indiana and southern Lower Michigan amid filtered diurnal heating. Coupled with dewpoints around 60 F, this is supporting weak buoyancy of 250-500 J/kg despite meager lapse rates aloft (5.5-6.0 C/km per latest mesoanalysis). While instability is forecast to remain modest at best, favorable kinematics, including 150-250 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH amid strong low-level flow (40-50+ kts at 1 km AGL per regional VWPs), may support some potential for damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two with any stronger cores that can become better established. ..Chalmers/Smith.. 04/02/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX... LAT...LON 39268871 39668854 40388797 41138737 41568692 41968650 42328611 42368551 42108484 41708463 41198480 40648511 39908580 39288680 38988758 39088847 39268871 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more