SPC MD 335

MD 0335 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS....SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI...ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS Mesoscale Discussion 0335 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026 Areas affected...parts of northeastern Arkansas....southeastern Missouri...adjacent portions of western Kentucky and Tennessee...southern Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 022048Z - 022245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is underway and probably will persist into early evening, with potential for intensification which could be accompanied by at least the risk for a tornado or two. It is not yet certain that a severe weather watch will be needed, but trends will continue to be monitored for this possibility. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development has recently been initiating in a broken band north of Poplar Bluff MO toward the Carbondale IL vicinity. This appears to be occurring along a corridor of better low-level moisture return and weak developing surface pressure fall axis, near the southern periphery of the mid-level cold pool associated with negatively tilted short wave troughing progressing across and northeast of the lower Missouri Valley. Destabilization has been sufficient to support only weak mixed-layer CAPE. This may not improve much through the remainder of the afternoon, except perhaps across parts of northeastern Arkansas into the Missouri Bootheel vicinity, based on latest Rapid Refresh guidance. Even so, this appears focused along the southeastern periphery of a strong southerly low-level jet axis, including 40-50 kt speeds around 850 mb. It appears possible that low-level hodographs and thermodynamic profiles could become supportive of supercell structures capable of producing tornadoes. However, the extent of this potential remains unclear. ..Kerr/Hart.. 04/02/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK... LAT...LON 38328857 37558852 35189028 35039105 36719087 38388970 38328857 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more