SPC MD 308

MD 0308 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOTHWEST OKLAHOMA Mesoscale Discussion 0308 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026 Areas affected...parts of the eastern Texas Panhandle and northwest Texas into sothwest Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 311926Z - 312200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Storms are expected to form after 21Z, with large hail and locally damaging gusts possible through early evening. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a cold front moving south across western OK and the TX Panhandle, with a dryline extending south from the surface low west of KCDS. Temperatures have warmed into the mid 80s F across the warm sector, with dewpoints holding in the 50s F. Given cool midlevel temperatures, this is resulting in a deep layer of steep lapse rates. MLCAPE will continue to rise perhaps into the 1500-2000 J/kg range. Satellite imagery shows CU already beginning to form beneath the cirrus as of 1930Z. Storms will likely form near the surface low and sporadically southward along the dryline into parts of the South Plains after 21Z. These may be initially high based, but backing and strengthening low-level winds will maintain or increase dewpoints into the well-mixed boundary layer. The air mass should remain sufficiently uncapped into southwest OK and northwest TX to sustained any ongoing cells, although capping will become a factor after sunset and with eastward extent into the cooler/more moist air mass. At least for a few hours, slow-moving cells may produce large hail, and perhaps a tornado especially near the low or as storms potentially propagate east along the sinking cold front. The warm air mass and deep mixed layer suggest severe gust potential as well. ..Jewell/Hart.. 03/31/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 33540111 35030087 35130052 35419990 35829935 36009891 35889829 35449828 34309894 33749942 33499988 33330050 33540111 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more