SPC MD 233

MD 0233 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 51... FOR SOUTHERN/EASTERN NC Mesoscale Discussion 0233 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026 Areas affected...southern/eastern NC Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 51... Valid 121632Z - 121830Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 51 continues. SUMMARY...Threat for sporadic strong to locally severe gusts, with low-probability brief tornado potential, should persist into mid-afternoon as lower-topped storms shift east-northeast across southern/eastern North Carolina. DISCUSSION...Lower-topped convection is ongoing from far eastern SC through the Raleigh metro area. Northern activity will continue to be undercut by the surface cold front pushing southeast from the Piedmont to Coastal Plain. More persistent strong to locally severe gust potential should occur with the southern portion near the NC/SC coastal border area. Favorably timed thinning of downstream cloud coverage will aid in boosting boundary-layer instability/depth as temperatures further warm from 75-80 F, outside of the immediate coast. With veered and nearly unidirectional southwesterly wind profiles curtailing hodograph curvature, damaging winds will likely remain the primary hazard across southern NC through the Pamlico Sound vicinity. ..Grams.. 03/12/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... LAT...LON 34177920 34737922 35077884 35657827 35907779 35917680 35677620 35187616 34947631 34787652 34417740 33797807 33597890 33607928 34177920 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more