SPC MD 213

MD 0213 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR UPPER OHIO VALLEY Mesoscale Discussion 0213 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0910 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026 Areas affected...Upper Ohio Valley Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 111410Z - 111615Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...While surface-based instability may remain limited, strong low-level flow will promote damaging wind and tornado potential into the afternoon. A tornado watch is likely. DISCUSSION...A narrow band of convection continues to race eastward into western Ohio this morning. The KIND and KILN VWP showed around 75 kts in the lowest 2 km. Despite limited buoyancy, convection should be deep enough to promote damaging wind potential based on the strength of the low-level flow alone. Furthermore, VWP data from regional 88D/TDWR also showed enlarged low-level hodographs. A few tornadoes will be possible within the line of convection as it continues into the afternoon. The main question going forward will be the degree of destabilization downstream of the current strongest activity. A broad area of precipitation precedes the narrow band and is moving from southern Ohio into western Pennsylvania. Buoyancy may continue to remain limited as a result. The low-level moisture content is sufficient enough that even weak surface heating would allow for stronger convection. There is also some potential for additional activity to form on the southern flank of the precipitation later this afternoon. Though these uncertainties exist, the environment will still support damaging wind and tornado potential. A tornado watch will likely be needed. ..Wendt/Gleason.. 03/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... LAT...LON 40258245 40828330 41058362 41268353 41548243 41588146 41578091 41338003 40737976 40177988 39327999 39318087 39598150 40258245 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more