SPC MD 211

MD 0211 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF EAST TX INTO NORTHWEST LA AND SOUTHERN AR Mesoscale Discussion 0211 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0713 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026 Areas affected...Parts of east TX into northwest LA and southern AR Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 111213Z - 111415Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Some threat for locally damaging wind and perhaps a tornado may continue through the morning. DISCUSSION...Convection has become better organized across parts of southern AR this morning, with additional robust development noted into parts of northwest LA and east TX. A general increase in storm coverage is expected with time as a mid/upper-level shortwave trough approaches the region from west TX. Some weakening and veering of low-level flow has been noted in regional VWPs, but deep-layer shear remains favorable, and seasonably rich low-level moisture will continue to support moderate buoyancy in advance of an approaching cold front. The severe threat may tend to remain rather isolated in the short term, though the strongest cells/clusters will be capable of producing locally damaging wind and perhaps a tornado. A more substantial increase in the coverage of the severe threat is expected later today, in response to the approaching shortwave trough. ..Dean/Mosier.. 03/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX... LAT...LON 33819108 31949264 30509388 29189596 28729680 28899701 29649682 30039639 31319511 33749244 34509213 34969137 34829080 34629053 33819108 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more