SPC MD 183

MD 0183 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO FAR EASTERN LOUISIANA Mesoscale Discussion 0183 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 PM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026 Areas affected...southern Mississippi into far eastern Louisiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 092342Z - 100145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A storm or two may persist this evening in the short term. Coverage and longevity of severe potential is not expected to warrant a watch. DISCUSSION...Daytime heating and upper 60s F dewpoints have led to moderate instability over the northern Gulf Coast area with MUCAPE around 2000 J/kg. While the primary lift is with the wave moving across northern AL, scattered storms persist extending southwestward across much of MS and into eastern LA. The VWP from HDC shows veering winds with height, with 35-40 kt effective shear, as well as 0-1 km SRH near 100 m2/s2. Given the uncapped air mass and favorably shaped hodograph, some cells have exhibited supercell characteristics at times. As the boundary layer begins to cool this evening, the number and intensity of cells is expected to decrease. In the short term, localized hail, a brief tornado or strong gusts cannot be ruled out. ..Jewell/Hart.. 03/09/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 30829104 31269068 31888982 32098872 31848813 31408798 30768828 30578884 30539051 30829104 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more