SPC MD 177

MD 0177 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OK/NORTHEAST TX INTO AR AND FAR NORTHWEST LA Mesoscale Discussion 0177 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0710 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026 Areas affected...Parts of southeast OK/northeast TX into AR and far northwest LA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 091210Z - 091415Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms are possible this morning. DISCUSSION...Elevated convection has developed across parts of south-central/southeast OK this morning, within a low-level warm-advection regime and in advance of a low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough moving across OK. Increasing moisture in the 850-700 mb layer beneath relatively steep midlevel lapse rates is resulting in MUCAPE values of greater than 1000 J/kg from north TX into AR, which will aid in the development of potentially robust updrafts. Coverage of storms through mid morning remains somewhat uncertain, due to the only modest large-scale ascent associated with the weakening shortwave trough. However, moderate mid/upper-level flow will support sufficient effective shear for some storm organization, with any sustained robust updrafts becoming capable of producing large hail and locally gusty winds. Watch issuance is considered unlikely in the short term, with the expectation that the severe threat will generally remain isolated through mid morning. Greater severe potential is still expected from late morning into the afternoon across parts of AR/MS, when surface-based destabilization becomes more supportive of organized cells and/or clusters. ..Dean/Mosier.. 03/09/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 35199666 35749427 35639267 35409202 34869173 33969238 33309381 33119480 33129553 33309636 33579692 34239717 35199666 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more