SPC MD 178

MD 0178 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS Mesoscale Discussion 0178 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0832 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026 Areas affected...Parts of southern Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 091332Z - 091500Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Risk of severe hail and perhaps locally damaging gusts will continue spreading eastward across southern Arkansas into this afternoon. A watch will be issued shortly. DISCUSSION...A cluster of elevated splitting supercells is ongoing across far southeastern OK this morning, which is being aided by large-scale forcing for ascent ahead of a low-amplitude midlevel impulse and broad/weak low-level warm advection. As the impulse continues eastward, these storms (and additional development) will continue eastward across southern AR into this afternoon. Around 40 to 50 kt of midlevel flow (per nearby VWP) and steep midlevel lapse rates will favor large hail with primarily elevated supercells. Diurnal heating may eventually support surface-based storms, with an increase in the damaging-wind risk, as this activity continues eastward. A watch will be issued shortly for southern AR. ..Weinman/Thompson.. 03/09/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA... LAT...LON 33439378 33779431 34199478 34719459 34919416 34929358 34699231 34349166 33839141 33249162 33239241 33439378 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more