SPC MD 176

MD 0176 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN Mesoscale Discussion 0176 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 PM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026 Areas affected...parts of the Carolina coastal plain Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 081756Z - 082030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered strong thunderstorm development appears increasingly probable through 3-5 PM EDT, some of which may pose a risk for small to marginally severe hail and localized potentially damaging wind gusts. DISCUSSION...Convergence within surface troughing across the coastal plain still appears generally weak, but substantive destabilization is ongoing along a broad confluence zone and corridor of stronger surface heating south of Columbia SC through the Greenville NC vicinity. Where surface dew points remain in the lower to mid 60s, it appears that mixed-layer CAPE is now on the order of 1000 J/kg, with inhibition eroding beneath modestly shear 30-35 kt southwesterly deep-layer mean flow. Deepening convective development is underway along this corridor, and it appears that thunderstorms may begin to initiate leading to isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development by 19-21Z. This may be aided by mid/upper forcing for ascent now beginning to spread east-northeast of the southern Appalachians/eastern Gulf Coast states. Although deep-layer shear appears marginal, some strengthening of mid-level flow could support a few transient supercell structures as storms begin to intensify. Some of this activity may pose a risk for small to marginally severe hail. Although low-level flow and shear is likely to remain modest to weak, forecast soundings indicate lower through mid-tropospheric profiles becoming sufficiently steep to support localized potentially damaging wind gusts, aided by melting hail and evaporative cooling. ..Kerr/Guyer.. 03/08/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... Read more