SPC MD 150

MD 0150 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI Mesoscale Discussion 0150 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Fri Mar 06 2026 Areas affected...southeastern Kansas into western/central Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 062147Z - 070015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...The severe risk should gradually increase over the next few hours. While timing is uncertain, a watch may eventually be needed. DISCUSSION...Slightly elevated convection is gradually deepening within a zone of low-level warm advection over southwestern MO and southeastern KS -- along the southeastern periphery of earlier thunderstorm clusters. Here, boundary-layer dewpoints are increasing into the lower 60s amid pockets of diurnal heating in cloud breaks. While a low-level warm layer and related inhibition (evident in earlier nearby soundings and forecast profiles) limits confidence in thunderstorm evolution/maturation -- especially given weak large-scale forcing for ascent -- the continued destabilization may favor gradual intensification through the afternoon into this evening. If thunderstorms can become surface-based, around 40-50 kt of effective shear and large clockwise-curved low-level hodographs would support supercells and organized clusters capable of damaging winds, large hail, and a couple tornadoes. Given the uncertainty on timing/evolution of the severe risk in this corridor, a watch is not expected in the near-term, though convective trends are being monitored. ..Weinman/Guyer.. 03/06/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 37929582 38539555 39269474 39649414 39739362 39609309 39309281 38809271 38019311 37219385 36939426 36929468 37069564 37479583 37929582 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more