{
  "$type": "com.whtwnd.blog.entry",
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  "title": "Forecasting Energetic Particles in the Inner Heliosphere",
  "content": "![image](https://psathyrella.us-west.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did%3Aplc%3Add6rbxnc4ostg26plpmonhcz&cid=bafkreig7tirfdfh4sqp6w4aqgq3iksk7ztaytuzkn2honcjithbg4r4qtm)\n\n*By tracking the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) speed relative to the surrounding background, PUNCH can now forecast radiation levels from space weather events known as Energetic Storm Particle (ESP) showers (from [Dayeh et al. 2025](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11207-024-02409-5)).*\n\nEnergetic particles associated with shocks driven by fast coronal mass ejections ([CMEs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronal_mass_ejection)) or shocks developed by stream interaction regions ([SIRs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corotating_interaction_region)) often extend to high energies and are key elements of [space weather](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_weather). PUNCH is designed to track of solar wind structures through interplanetary space. [Dayeh et al. (2025)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11207-024-02409-5) reported a strong and robust relation between the shock speed jump magnitude at CME and SIR shocks, and the peak fluxes of energetic particles.  Their analysis was based on 59 CME-driven shocks and 74 CIRs observed by Wind/STEP between 1997 – 2023.  With that relationship, QuickPUNCH image sequences, and new methods for identifying speed jumps in the solar wind, we can forecast shock-associated particle events and their location in interplanetary space.  PUNCH science data may become a crucial input to forecasting radiation events in the inner heliosphere.\n\n*This is PUNCH Nugget #20.  PUNCH nuggets are archived at the [PUNCH mission website](https://punch.space.swri.edu). You can [sign up to receive PUNCH nuggets by email](https://forms.gle/jsKAzv3bUACJi3jx9).*",
  "createdAt": "2025-08-26T15:54:59.333Z",
  "visibility": "public"
}