We Watch and We Pay: Three Crises, Six Years, One Bill

First it was COVID. Then Ukraine. Now Iran. Three crises in six years, and the same people pay the price every single time: us.

We didn't vote for lockdowns that shattered supply chains. We didn't vote for a war in Ukraine that sent gas prices through the roof. We didn't vote for bombs on Tehran or a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. But we're paying for all of it, at the pump, at the grocery store, in our heating bills, in our rent, in the slow erosion of everything we worked for.

The politicians make the decisions. The generals drop the bombs. The oil companies count their profits. And we watch. And we pay.

The COVID Bill

Remember 2020? "Two weeks to flatten the curve" became two years of disruption. Supply chains collapsed. Factories shut down. Ships sat in ports. The things we used to buy without thinking, furniture, electronics, cars, lumber, suddenly cost 30%, 50%, 100% more. Or they simply weren't available.

Governments printed money like it was toilet paper. Trillions of dollars, euros, pounds, conjured out of thin air and pumped into economies that were bleeding out. They told us it was necessary. They told us there was no alternative. They told us inflation would be "transitory."

It wasn't transitory. It was permanent. The money supply expanded, and prices followed. Your salary didn't keep up. Your savings bought less. The house you were saving for moved further out of reach. The retirement you planned got pushed back another decade.

But we accepted it. What choice did we have? There was a pandemic. People were dying. We wore the masks. We stayed home. We watched our small businesses close while Amazon doubled its market cap. We paid.

Independent journalism. No sponsors. No filters. Subscribe free, get investigations delivered →

The Ukraine Bill

Then came February 2022. Russia invaded Ukraine. And Europe, in a fit of moral clarity, decided to cut itself off from Russian gas, the cheap energy that had powered its industry for decades.

Noble? Perhaps. Costly? Absolutely.

Gas prices in Europe increased fivefold. Electricity bills doubled, tripled. Factories that had operated for generations shut down because they couldn't afford to run. Fertilizer plants closed. Steel mills went dark. Chemical companies moved production to America, where energy was still cheap.

Governments told us to take shorter showers. To turn down the thermostat. To wear sweaters indoors. They handed out subsidies with one hand while inflation ate our purchasing power with the other. They congratulated themselves on "standing with Ukraine" while ordinary families chose between heating and eating.

The sanctions were supposed to cripple Russia. Instead, Russia found new customers, China, India, the Global South. Russian oil kept flowing. Russian gas found new pipelines. And Europe? Europe bought American LNG at four times the price and called it "energy independence."

We didn't start that war. We didn't choose those sanctions. But we paid. We're still paying. Four years later, energy prices haven't returned to pre-war levels. They never will.

The Iran Bill

And now this. February 28, 2026. The United States and Israel decided to bomb Iran. They killed the Supreme Leader. They destroyed military bases, airports, oil depots. They started a war that nobody asked for, during negotiations that were supposedly "within reach" of a deal.

Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. Twenty percent of the world's oil, gone. Ships stranded. Tankers turning back. Insurance rates skyrocketing. And now, forty-five days into the war, Trump has announced an American blockade on top of the Iranian one.

Oil hit $103 a barrel this morning. It was $73 before the war started. That's a 40% increase in six weeks. Gas prices in America are up $1.14 per gallon. In Europe, where we were already paying more than Americans ever will, the pain is even worse.

Analysts say prices could stay elevated through the end of 2026, at minimum. That's if the war ends soon. That's if the strait reopens. That's if the damaged infrastructure gets repaired. None of which is guaranteed.

A Columbia University energy expert put it bluntly: "We're going to see energy prices high, and maybe even rising" until "meaningful ship traffic" gets through the strait. When will that happen? Nobody knows. "Those are huge variables which are really, really unsolved."

The Compound Effect

Here's what the economists and politicians don't talk about: these crises don't exist in isolation. They stack. They compound. Each one makes the next one worse.

COVID broke the supply chains. Ukraine broke the energy markets. Iran is breaking what's left.

The family that was barely recovering from pandemic-era price increases got hit again by the Ukraine energy shock. Now they're getting hit a third time by the Iran oil spike. Each crisis leaves them with less savings, less margin, less ability to absorb the next blow.

Meanwhile, the people at the top keep getting richer. Defense contractors are having record years. Oil companies are posting record profits. The billionaires who own the shipping companies, the weapons manufacturers, the commodity traders, they're not paying more for gas. They're collecting the money you pay.

This is how wealth transfers upward. Not through some conspiracy, but through the simple mechanics of crisis economics. When everything costs more, the people who own the things that cost more get richer. The people who have to buy those things get poorer.

Three crises. Six years. The same winners. The same losers.

The Illusion of Choice

They tell us we live in democracies. They tell us we have a voice. They tell us to vote, to participate, to make our opinions heard.

Did anyone vote for this war?

The American Congress didn't declare it. They tried to stop it, the Senate voted 47-53, the House voted 212-219. Both failed. Trump did it anyway, under authority nobody granted him, for goals that keep shifting, with an endgame nobody can define.

European citizens certainly didn't vote for it. British citizens are now paying higher energy bills for a war their Prime Minister says they're "not involved in", while American bombers fly from British bases. German citizens are watching their economy sink further into recession while their Chancellor calls Israeli bombs "the dirty work done for all of us."

The decisions are made in Washington, Tel Aviv, Tehran. The consequences are felt in Warsaw, Berlin, Madrid, Copenhagen, Bucharest. In every town where someone has to choose between filling their car and filling their refrigerator.

We don't get to choose. We just get to pay.

They're not telling you. We are. Subscribe free, no algorithms, no ads →

What Comes Next

The ceasefire expires on April 22. Eight days from now. There's no deal in place. The talks in Pakistan failed. Trump says he doesn't care if Iran comes back to negotiate. Iran says it won't surrender. The blockade continues. The bombs keep falling on Lebanon.

If there's no deal, the war resumes. If the war resumes, prices go higher. If prices go higher, more businesses close, more jobs disappear, more families fall behind.

And even if there is a deal, even if some miracle of diplomacy produces an agreement, the damage is already done. The oil infrastructure is destroyed. The shipping routes are disrupted. The insurance markets are spooked. The prices won't come down overnight. They may never come down to where they were.

We will pay for this war for years. Just like we're still paying for Ukraine. Just like we're still paying for COVID. Each crisis leaves a scar that never fully heals before the next wound opens.

The Question Nobody Asks

Here's what I want to know: When does it end?

When do ordinary people stop being the shock absorbers for every geopolitical crisis? When do the people who start wars start paying for them? When do the politicians who make these decisions face any consequences at all?

Trump will not pay more for gas. Netanyahu will not pay more for heating. Von der Leyen will not struggle to afford groceries. They have drivers and security details and expense accounts and salaries that make our annual income look like a rounding error.

They make the decisions. We pay the price. That's the deal. That's always been the deal.

The only question is how long we keep accepting it.

COVID taught us that supply chains are fragile. Ukraine taught us that energy independence was a lie. Iran is teaching us that the global economy can be held hostage by a handful of men with bombs and egos. What's the next lesson? What's the next bill?

I don't know. Nobody knows. But I know who's going to pay it.

We will. We always do.

We watch the news. We shake our heads. We mutter about how terrible it all is. And then we go to the gas station, and we see the numbers, and we fill up anyway because we have no choice. We go to the grocery store, and we see the prices, and we buy less because we have no choice. We open our utility bills, and we wince, and we pay because we have no choice.

We watch. And we pay. That's all we ever do.

• A. Kade

The Kade Frequency - No sponsors, no filters, no propaganda.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much have oil prices increased since the Iran war started? +

Oil prices have risen approximately 40% since the war began on February 28, 2026. Brent crude went from around $73 per barrel before the war to over $103 per barrel by mid-April 2026. US gas prices have increased by $1.14 per gallon in six weeks. Analysts predict prices will remain elevated through the end of 2026 at minimum.

Why is the Strait of Hormuz so important for oil prices? +

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint through which approximately 20% of the world's oil supply normally passes. It connects the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean and is the only sea route for oil exports from major Gulf producers. Iran has controlled access to the strait since the war began, and as of April 14, 2026, the US has imposed its own blockade on Iranian ports, creating a dual blockade that has severely disrupted global energy markets.

How does the Iran war compare to the Ukraine energy crisis? +

Both crises caused severe energy price spikes, but they affected different markets. The Ukraine war primarily impacted European natural gas prices, which increased fivefold as Europe cut off Russian gas. The Iran war is primarily affecting global oil prices since the Strait of Hormuz handles oil shipments rather than gas pipelines. The compounding effect is significant: families and businesses that hadn't recovered from Ukraine-era price increases are now facing another shock.

When will oil prices return to pre-war levels? +

According to energy analysts, prices are unlikely to return to pre-war levels anytime soon. A Columbia University energy expert warned that prices won't decline until "meaningful ship traffic" gets through the Strait of Hormuz and damaged oil infrastructure is repaired, both of which are "huge variables which are really unsolved." Analysts predict elevated oil prices will persist through at least the end of 2026, regardless of when the war ends.

Did Congress vote for the Iran war? +

No. The US Congress did not declare war on Iran. Both the Senate and House attempted to restrict President Trump's ability to continue military action against Iran through war powers resolutions, but both votes failed narrowly (Senate 47-53, House 212-219). The Trump administration proceeded with military operations under existing executive authority without formal Congressional authorization.

What is the "compound effect" of economic crises? +

The compound effect refers to how successive economic shocks stack on top of each other. A family that was recovering from COVID-era inflation got hit again by Ukraine energy prices, and is now facing a third shock from Iran oil prices. Each crisis leaves people with less savings, less financial margin, and less ability to absorb the next blow. Meanwhile, asset owners and corporations that profit from higher prices accumulate more wealth with each crisis, widening inequality.

Why are European countries affected by the Iran war? +

European countries are affected because global energy markets are interconnected. Europe receives 12-14% of its LNG from Qatar through the Strait of Hormuz. Additionally, when global oil prices rise, all consumers pay more regardless of where their specific oil comes from. European leaders like UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer have acknowledged that British citizens are paying higher energy bills because of the war, despite the UK officially not being involved in the conflict.

What happens when the ceasefire expires on April 22? +

As of April 14, 2026, no long-term peace deal has been reached between the US and Iran. Weekend talks in Pakistan ended without agreement, and Trump has announced he doesn't care if Iran returns to negotiations. If no deal is reached before the two-week ceasefire expires on April 22, military operations could resume, likely pushing oil prices even higher and extending the economic damage indefinitely.