{
  "$type": "site.standard.document",
  "createdAt": "2026-05-17T01:06:12.457Z",
  "description": "What drives a grown man to spend his Grand Prix Saturdays computing rolling averages? In my case, the thirst for winning.",
  "path": "/articles/fantasize-to-survive",
  "publishedAt": "2025-12-08T00:00:00.000Z",
  "site": "at://did:plc:chvdikdyvslsuxivpeyqzvp3/site.standard.publication/self",
  "textContent": "Last year, personal issues forced me to abandon Fantasy F1 mid-season. In 2025, I set myself an unlikely goal: finish on the podium of the France league.\n\n## What is Fantasy F1?\n\nIt's a [game](https://fantasy.formula1.com/en/) where you build a team of 5 drivers and 2 constructors within a 100M budget. Points are awarded based on real-life performance, and asset values fluctuate throughout the season. Six chips let you occasionally boost your score: , , , ,  and .\n\n## Season opener: belly flop\n\nFirst Grand Prix, first disaster. 2 DNFs, 37 total points (you'd normally expect scores between 150 and 250), -1.8M$ in value gains, and a measly 13,783rd place in the France league for my main team. It wasn't just the worst season start I'd ever experienced, it was simply the worst race in my entire fantasy career.\n\nOn the verge of shelving Fantasy until next season, I remembered my commitment: finish in the top 3. And, naturally, a famous quote came to mind.\n\nYou gotta remember this is a marathon, not a sprint, so… Gotta be measured… how aggressive we go.\n\nSo, too bad, exit my teams Billevesée and Faribole: everything would ride on team number 3, Baliverne.\n\n## Reading the game to bounce back\n\n### The pricing algorithm\n\nAfter three rounds, the community had figured out the formula being used.\n\nThat is, the effective price per million equals the average score over the last three rounds divided by the asset's price.\nThen, depending on performance, the price change is applied, down to a minimum of 4.5M:\n\nWhat this really means is that the weight of a negative score (DNF) carries over three races. Once you know these numbers, you can work out exactly how many points an asset would need to gain or lose value, sometimes with the certainty that an asset will take the biggest bonus, or *a contrario* the biggest penalty.\n\n### Riding the waves\n\nThe pricing algorithm works in three-race cycles, and to build your budget, you simply select drivers who are undervalued by DNFs four races earlier.\n\nSo the meta for this season was:\n\n* To have a composition with 3 tier-A assets and 5 tier-B assets. Either two tier-A constructors + one tier-A driver (DRS) + 5 tier-B drivers gaining budget, or one constructor + two tier-A drivers, and one constructor + 4 tier-B drivers gaining budget.\n* To rotate *fillers* by exploiting DNFs to buy them at their price floor and sell them at their peak\n* All of this to reach a budget allowing two tier-A constructors and two tier-A drivers as quickly as possible\n* The best tier-A picks this year were  and  for constructors, , ,  and  for drivers.\n\nComparing myself to the top 20 average, there's a clear missed wave that forced me to score better with less budget. The culprit: the summer races. Silverstone, Spa-Francorchamps, Hungary.\n\n## Tour de France: summer wipeout\n\nEvery Grand Prix weekend, I'd take some time between free practice and qualifying to theorycraft my team of choice. It takes a bit of time, as there are many factors to weigh, including:\n\n* Anticipating price waves to optimize the two changes for the current weekend so I wouldn't get stuck at the next Grand Prix,\n* Putting free practice times in perspective with what was being tested (long stints, tire compounds, adjustments between sessions, teammate performance…)\n\n### A Silverstone in the pond\n\nOn July 6th of this year, I was alone with my kids, and I had the idea to take them to the roadside to watch the Tour de France pass by. They were reluctant at first, then got excited at the last minute.\n\nThe Formula 1 race was at 4pm, coinciding with the Tour de France caravan passing through. Caught up in the excitement of the moment, I completely forgot to adjust my team for R12:\n\n*  had overperformed at R9, and was going to lose value at R12 without scoring at\n  least 12 points, highly unlikely,\n*  had overperformed at R10 and R11, and was certain to gain value.\n\nBefore FP3, my plan was to go with , but I ended up that day with  (2 × DNF). A net loss of 58 points, 2M$, and all flexibility for the next Grand Prix.\n\n### Spa-Francorchamps: descent into hell with the Red Devils\n\nThe Belgian Grand Prix, my favorite of the year, was stripped of all theorycrafting. I had two assets I couldn't get rid of, , that I absolutely had to drop or lose another 1.2M$. As a reminder, you get two free changes per Grand Prix, and the -20 points from DNFs weigh on three races.\nThe options were so limited that I was forced to make the swap  to .  is easily one of my favorite drivers. But selecting him when his price exceeds 4.5M$ always gives you cold sweats: he drives the worst car on the grid. And a DNF from him in the sprint race sealed this second consecutive Grand Prix with a lovely .\n\n### Hungary: clearing skies after a gloomy summer\n\nThird and final race impacted by the Tour de France, and for the third consecutive time, my choices were dictated by budget swings rather than free practice analysis.  was going to lose value again and score no points, I had to change him, and with the cash shortage caused by Silverstone and Spa, I was forced to keep  when  was a guaranteed value gainer.\nResult:  instead of .\n\nIt's very easy to do this accounting in hindsight. The point isn't to claim that wanting to win my\nkids some branded caps and bucket hats from the Tour de France caravan definitely cost me 100\npoints and 4M$. The takeaway is simply that the budget grinding strategy turns against you at the\nslightest mistake, and one oversight often costs you for 3 Grand Prix.\n\nIn the following races, I applied the method flawlessly. Little by little, I climbed back up the standings. And that's when I made a bet.\n\n## Verstappen: absolute cinema\n\nFantasy F1 is a numbers game, but the tight margins between asset prices are what give it its flavor. That horrible feeling of indecision right before, followed by the lightness right after locking in your team on Saturday. But in the end, the glorious uncertainty of sport prevails. *In fine*, the best moments of the season are when you have a marginal pick that massively overperforms. And when it comes to marginal picks, my greatest pride is having anticipated early on that  would dominate the end of the season.\n\nPlaced in my team with a  in Baku, he never left it again. Especially not in São Paulo when he was 17th in free practice and 6th in sprint qualifying, where Verstappen pulled off the most spectacular comeback of the season (a pit lane start turned into a podium, ). Nor in Qatar, where reason would have dictated putting the  on .\n\nBy going all-in on , after the penultimate Grand Prix I was 3rd in the France standings, with a mere 4-point lead over 4th place, and very slim chances of holding that position.\n\n## Abu Dhabi: the final dilemma\n\nFor F1 fans, the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix inevitably echoed the decisive 2021 race.\n\nBut beyond the sporting aspect, the Fantasy context added another layer. The 4th-place player had the budget to select . That pick was the dream choice for a stress-free race.  would most likely win the race, and  would most likely be crowned World Champion. One of them would surely grab the 10-point Driver of the Day bonus. And I had saved my  for this occasion.\n\nThat comfort, I couldn't afford. My budget only allowed me to select  or . And the choice was agonizing:\n\n* If  won the race, which I was convinced of, then  would be subject to team orders. For instance, if  had been able to pass  in the final stint,  would surely have been ordered to let  and  through to save the latter's title.\n* But if  won the race, he was guaranteed to get the Driver of the Day bonus, sealing my fate.\n\nTrue to my recent convictions, I chose to bet on the driver who had brought me this far, and I lined up . The only plausible scenario that could let me keep my 3rd place was:  1st,  2nd, and  3rd. And, *deus ex machina*, that is exactly what happened.\n\n## Final thoughts\n\nGenerally, I use Fantasy F1 to spice up seasons and races that would otherwise feel bland. I've completely stopped watching Drive to Survive, which I find far too scripted. And, much like Advent of Code, I've never managed to build a community of regular players around me. But this year, the stakes were a bit higher.\n\nMy final standings for the [2025 season](https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2025/races) are as follows:\n\n* 3rd place in the France league\n* 19th place in the  fan league\n* 36th place in the  fan league\n* 95th place worldwide\n\nCould I have done better? Absolutely. But in hindsight, first place in the France league was out of reach, and I wouldn't trade the adrenaline spikes from the end of season for anything in the world. And of course, that lingering taste of unfinished business already makes me want to start again next year, when sporting uncertainty will be, this time, total.\n\nWhen I look at 2025, the fact of setting a personal goal that seemed unreachable at the start of the season, giving myself the means to achieve it, and getting there at the wire…\n\nIn my personal life, things did not go well for a while. And it was hard to see…\n\nIt's just nice to win one.\n",
  "title": "Fantasize to survive",
  "updatedAt": "2026-05-17T00:00:00.000Z"
}