The Week in Kazakhstan: Seven-Year Crisis

Speaking before an assembly of local governors and councils on March 12, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev urged regional administrations not to rely on subsidies from the central budget. Tokayev pointed to the need to “stop squandering huge amounts of money on useless initiatives.” Tokayev also said that the government is considering transferring a portion of revenues from environmental fines and property taxes to local budgets in an effort to provide regions with “more resources”.

More broadly, Tokayev used the assembly to speak about the current geopolitical situation while reaffirming Kazakhstan’s traditionally balanced diplomatic stance. “I intend to do everything possible through political and diplomatic means to protect the security of our country,” Tokayev said. He also added that Kazakhstan’s citizens “know that they have the support of the government, which is always ready to come to their aid.” More than 9,000 citizens according to state agencies reports have been repatriated from countries in the Gulf and Iran in the weeks following the start of the US-Israeli attacks on Iran.

French President Emmanuel Macron listed Kazakhstan as a reliable supplier of uranium at a Nuclear Energy Summit in Paris on March 10. Macron said Europe should reduce its reliance on Russian nuclear fuel by using alternative sources such as Kazakhstan, Mongolia, Canada, and Australia, as well as emerging suppliers like Uzbekistan.

On March 11, energy minister Yerlan Shakkaliyev said that increased oil prices due to the ongoing war in Iran could result in a cash windfall for Kazakhstan’s budget. With oil prices above $100/barrel, Kazakhstan’s coffers could enjoy an extra $20-35 billion this year, an amount “comparable to the cost of building two oil refineries or financing a nuclear power plant,” the minister noted.

A survey published on March 13 by the research group Demoscope found that around 75% of respondents had noticed an increase in their expenses. Most respondents said they were trying to cut spending, primarily on food and clothing. A majority of those surveyed also reported that inflation had accelerated since Kazakhstan’s introduction of a new Tax Code in January, which raised VAT from 12% to 16%.

On March 11, a court in the northern city of Petropavlovsk sentenced activist Vadim Kuramshin to 10 days in detention for disseminating false information on social media. One day earlier, Kuramshin had been detained after publishing a TikTok video pointing out detentions and fines being levied against other activists discussing the Constitution. Kuramshin’s lawyers said his detention was unlawful.

Between March 9-10, social media platforms owned by Meta deleted all posts by journalists Murat Daniyar, Assem Zhapisheva, and Irina Petrushova, as well as content published by human rights advocate Bakhytzhan Toregozhina and others. The removed posts were flagged by a user under the name “Giorgio Armani”. The accounts were restored roughly 24 hours later. Journalists who have criticized the government’s repression of dissenting voices ahead of the constitutional referendum appear to have been most affected.

Vlast’s website suffered another DDoS attack on March 6, rendering it inaccessible for hours. Bot attacks on independent news websites tend to increase in frequency ahead of elections or referendums in Kazakhstan.

The US Commission on International Religious Freedom added defrocked Russian Orthodox priest Iakov Vorontsov to its database of people persecuted for their faith, the Kazakhstan International Bureau for Human Rights reported on March 8. Vorontsov, who is known for his views opposing Russia’s war in Ukraine, was arrested on drugs charges in February after attempting to register a new Orthodox religious organisation in Kazakhstan. [Read more here.]

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