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  "description": "Supply is outpacing demand. Scarcity has collapsed into sports. And the most useful phrase in the market right now isn't volume or price. It's \"the shape of the deal.\"",
  "path": "/the-2026-upfront-runs-on-shape-not-size/",
  "publishedAt": "2026-04-22T10:45:52.000Z",
  "site": "https://www.adlingo.org",
  "tags": [
    "MediaPost",
    "Media Dynamics",
    "212NYC's",
    "highest ad sales volume in the company's history",
    "Nielsen",
    "DRAX Direct",
    "Performance Insights Hub",
    "reveal to April 15",
    "paint a pretty clear picture",
    "Subscribe now"
  ],
  "textContent": "The upfronts have been morphing for years. It isnt a tight, single market anymore. It is multiple stacked upon on top of eachother.\n\nTo the numbers!\n\n  * MediaPost reports streaming commitments reached $13.2 billion last cycle, up 61% in two years.\n  * Linear slipped to $17.8 billion and fell 3% year-over-year.\n  * Media Dynamics has CPMs softening across the board:\n    * broadcast off 4.1%\n    * cable off 6.8%\n    * streaming and CTV off 7.6%.\n\n\n\nMore platforms are selling more inventory into the same advertiser demand pool. Meanwhile, price is absorbing the gap.\n\nI was at 212NYC's \"Portfolio Upfront\" panel over at Amazon's NYC offices a couple of nights ago. The panel itself was pretty good. A sell-side platform exec from Amazon (Jenny Burke), the president of investment at Horizon Media (David Campanelli), and an ad tech leader from Freewheel (Larry Allen), all trading notes.\n\nTheir answers were very different depending on where in the market they sat.\n\nSo here's my thoughts from the three sides of the market.\n\n### The Sellers: Scarcity is the only pricing power left\n\nIf you're a seller, live sports is the entire pricing story. NBCU closed its last upfront cycle at the highest ad sales volume in the company's history, and basically all of that was the Olympics, Super Bowl LX, and the 2026 FIFA World Cup.\n\nNielsen says sports is pulling nearly 30% of ad-supported TV viewing in the 18-49 and 25-54 demos. Everything else...margin compression.\n\nThe FAST channels keep flooding the market with cheap inventory. Chasing profitability, Peacock, Max, Netflix, and Prime all raised ad loads. The pitch has had to evolve. It used to be \"buy our reach, \"and now it's basically \"buy our stack.\"\n\nYou can see it in what the sellers are building. Disney is pushing DRAX Direct with The Trade Desk and DV360. NBCU rolled out its Performance Insights Hub and a bunch of new ad formats.\n\nParamount moved up its schedule reveal to April 15. Plus, they scattered advertiser meetings across three cities instead of doing one big New York stage.\n\nJenny Burke at Amazon described all of this as a \"big simplification effort\" from the panel stage, which is the polite framing. The _less_ polite framing is that sellers figured out the content slate isn't enough anymore.\n\nAnd Apple. The elephant nobody mentioned on the panel but I can only assume everyone is thinking about.\n\nNo ad tier yet, officially, but read the tea leaves. The rebrand, the price hikes, and all the ex-NBCU and Peacock executives they've been hiring paint a pretty clear picture. Whenever Apple turns the ads on, the premium AVOD supply gets more crowded than it already is.\n\n### This post is for subscribers only\n\nBecome a member to get access to all content\n\nSubscribe now",
  "title": "The 2026 upfront runs on shape, not size",
  "updatedAt": "2026-04-22T10:45:54.140Z"
}