{
"path": "/3mdakpploe22c",
"site": "at://did:plc:aajyn6qzw67cnmwf7zxzbjdy/site.standard.publication/3lyuurwxkbk24",
"tags": [
"network perception",
"network perception in atmosphere"
],
"$type": "site.standard.document",
"title": "Bluesky日本語圏における情報拡散構造の観察——48時間の経路追跡実験",
"content": {
"$type": "pub.leaflet.content",
"pages": [
{
"id": "019bf4ba-b253-7cc8-aa6f-3e0e689c67c6",
"$type": "pub.leaflet.pages.linearDocument",
"blocks": [
{
"$type": "pub.leaflet.pages.linearDocument#block",
"block": {
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.header",
"level": 2,
"facets": [],
"plaintext": "Introduction"
}
},
{
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"block": {
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.text",
"facets": [
{
"index": {
"byteEnd": 159,
"byteStart": 111
},
"features": [
{
"uri": "https://bsky.app/profile/newnews0320.bsky.social/post/3mczctvkwvk2m",
"$type": "pub.leaflet.richtext.facet#link"
}
]
}
],
"plaintext": "2026年1月、匿名アカウント「青空ニュース」がBluesky上で大規模なリポストを集め、日本語圏における「拡散力テスト」として注目を浴びた。当該投稿は2026年1月25日時点で約7,700リポストに達している。しかしこの数字には重大な欠落がある。誰が誰にリポストしたのか、情報がどのような経路で伝播したのか、という構造的情報が一切含まれていない。"
}
},
{
"$type": "pub.leaflet.pages.linearDocument#block",
"block": {
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.text",
"facets": [],
"plaintext": "7,700という数字は「量」を示すが、「形」を示さない。"
}
},
{
"$type": "pub.leaflet.pages.linearDocument#block",
"block": {
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.text",
"facets": [
{
"index": {
"byteEnd": 320,
"byteStart": 277
},
"features": [
{
"uri": "https://plurality.leaflet.pub/3mbdf4fzkac2u",
"$type": "pub.leaflet.richtext.facet#link"
}
]
}
],
"plaintext": "本実験は、この欠落を埋めることを目的とする。リポストの経路を追跡可能な設計を採用し、Bluesky日本語圏における情報拡散の構造を可視化する。これは、筆者が以前発表した「Network Perception in ATmosphere」(https://plurality.leaflet.pub/3mbdf4fzkac2u)の続編であり、理論的枠組みを実証データで補強する試みでもある。"
}
},
{
"$type": "pub.leaflet.pages.linearDocument#block",
"block": {
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.text",
"facets": [],
"plaintext": "問いは単純だ。Blueskyでは、情報はどのように広がるのか？"
}
},
{
"$type": "pub.leaflet.pages.linearDocument#block",
"block": {
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.horizontalRule"
}
},
{
"$type": "pub.leaflet.pages.linearDocument#block",
"block": {
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.header",
"level": 2,
"facets": [],
"plaintext": "Methods"
}
},
{
"$type": "pub.leaflet.pages.linearDocument#block",
"block": {
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.text",
"facets": [],
"plaintext": "2026年1月23日19時（JST）に、Bluesky上で以下の投稿を行った。"
}
},
{
"$type": "pub.leaflet.pages.linearDocument#block",
"block": {
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.bskyPost",
"postRef": {
"cid": "bafyreibdsunko6z3zhuonybtxvkwpnwk2dwtim72dcld3htnz4bfuddn5m",
"uri": "at://did:plc:aajyn6qzw67cnmwf7zxzbjdy/app.bsky.feed.post/3md3gndq2vc2l"
}
}
},
{
"$type": "pub.leaflet.pages.linearDocument#block",
"block": {
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.text",
"facets": [
{
"index": {
"byteEnd": 505,
"byteStart": 487
},
"features": [
{
"uri": "https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E3%83%9E%E3%82%AF%E3%82%AC%E3%83%95%E3%82%A3%E3%83%B3",
"$type": "pub.leaflet.richtext.facet#link"
}
]
}
],
"plaintext": "投稿には「リポストしたら、リプライで『誰のリポストで知ったか』+『うどんパソコン伝説』と書いてくれ」という指示を含めた。「うどんパソコン伝説」は追跡用のキーワードであり、意味はない。英語で言えば \"Udon Computer Legend\" となるが、このフレーズが無意味であることが重要だ。検索ノイズを排除し、実験参加者のリプライのみを確実に収集するためのマクガフィンである。"
}
},
{
"$type": "pub.leaflet.pages.linearDocument#block",
"block": {
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.text",
"facets": [
{
"index": {
"byteEnd": 131,
"byteStart": 104
},
"features": [
{
"$type": "pub.leaflet.richtext.facet#code"
}
]
}
],
"plaintext": "観測期間は48時間（1月23日19時〜1月25日19時）。リプライの収集にはBluesky APIのapp.bsky.feed.getPostThreadを用い、143件のリプライを取得した。"
}
},
{
"$type": "pub.leaflet.pages.linearDocument#block",
"block": {
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.text",
"facets": [],
"plaintext": "収集したリプライから「誰から知ったか」の申告を抽出し、有向グラフとして構造化した。ノードは参加者、エッジは情報伝達の方向（親→子）を示す。解析可能なエッジは132件、経路申告のないリプライ（「うどんパソコン伝説」のみの投稿等）は10件だった。"
}
},
{
"$type": "pub.leaflet.pages.linearDocument#block",
"block": {
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.text",
"facets": [],
"plaintext": "投稿者（Nighthaven）のフォロワー数は実験開始時点で約2,700。実験期間中、元投稿のリポストによる再浮上は行わなかった。介入なしで自然減衰を観測することに価値があると判断したためである。"
}
},
{
"$type": "pub.leaflet.pages.linearDocument#block",
"block": {
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.text",
"facets": [],
"plaintext": "なお、投稿本文で日付を「1月24日」と誤記し、投稿直後に訂正した。この訂正投稿も143件のリプライに含まれている。"
}
},
{
"$type": "pub.leaflet.pages.linearDocument#block",
"block": {
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.horizontalRule"
}
},
{
"$type": "pub.leaflet.pages.linearDocument#block",
"block": {
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.header",
"level": 2,
"facets": [],
"plaintext": "Results"
}
},
{
"$type": "pub.leaflet.pages.linearDocument#block",
"block": {
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.header",
"level": 3,
"facets": [],
"plaintext": "基本数値"
}
},
{
"$type": "pub.leaflet.pages.linearDocument#block",
"block": {
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.unorderedList",
"children": [
{
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.unorderedList#listItem",
"content": {
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.text",
"facets": [],
"plaintext": "総リプライ数：143件"
},
"children": []
},
{
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.unorderedList#listItem",
"content": {
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.text",
"facets": [],
"plaintext": "解析可能なエッジ数：132件"
},
"children": []
},
{
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.unorderedList#listItem",
"content": {
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.text",
"facets": [],
"plaintext": "最大連鎖深度：7次"
},
"children": []
}
]
}
},
{
"$type": "pub.leaflet.pages.linearDocument#block",
"block": {
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.header",
"level": 3,
"facets": [],
"plaintext": "時間分布"
}
},
{
"$type": "pub.leaflet.pages.linearDocument#block",
"block": {
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.text",
"facets": [],
"plaintext": "拡散は初動に集中した。"
}
},
{
"$type": "pub.leaflet.pages.linearDocument#block",
"block": {
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.unorderedList",
"children": [
{
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.unorderedList#listItem",
"content": {
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.text",
"facets": [],
"plaintext": "1日目（1/23）：117件（82%）"
},
"children": []
},
{
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.unorderedList#listItem",
"content": {
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.text",
"facets": [],
"plaintext": "2日目（1/24）：25件（17%）"
},
"children": []
},
{
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.unorderedList#listItem",
"content": {
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.text",
"facets": [],
"plaintext": "3日目（1/25）：1件（1%）"
},
"children": []
}
]
}
},
{
"$type": "pub.leaflet.pages.linearDocument#block",
"block": {
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.text",
"facets": [],
"plaintext": "最初のリプライは投稿から約3分後（09:57:17 UTC）、最後のリプライは終了約5時間前（05:26:43 UTC）だった。初動2時間で全体の約50%が集中し、24時間以降は明確な減衰曲線を描いた。"
}
},
{
"$type": "pub.leaflet.pages.linearDocument#block",
"block": {
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.header",
"level": 3,
"facets": [],
"plaintext": "ネットワーク構造"
}
},
{
"$type": "pub.leaflet.pages.linearDocument#block",
"block": {
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.text",
"facets": [],
"plaintext": "構造はツリー型（有向木）だった。指数関数的な爆発は起きず、放射状のスター型に局所的な線形連鎖が加わる形となった。"
}
},
{
"$type": "pub.leaflet.pages.linearDocument#block",
"block": {
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.text",
"facets": [
{
"index": {
"byteEnd": 40,
"byteStart": 0
},
"features": [
{
"$type": "pub.leaflet.richtext.facet#bold"
}
]
}
],
"plaintext": "ハブの次数（out-degree）上位："
}
},
{
"$type": "pub.leaflet.pages.linearDocument#block",
"block": {
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.image",
"image": {
"$type": "blob",
"ref": {
"$link": "bafkreih4hwhx4gmshz4r7f3swtkswonf3aezcrkjafbxgbx6ibkfi4jhhi"
},
"mimeType": "image/png",
"size": 101647
},
"aspectRatio": {
"width": 1346,
"height": 814
}
}
},
{
"$type": "pub.leaflet.pages.linearDocument#block",
"block": {
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.text",
"facets": [],
"plaintext": "Nighthavenからの直接拡散が63件（全体の約48%）を占め、二次ハブを経由した連鎖は限定的だった。"
}
},
{
"$type": "pub.leaflet.pages.linearDocument#block",
"block": {
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.header",
"level": 3,
"facets": [],
"plaintext": "特殊経路"
}
},
{
"$type": "pub.leaflet.pages.linearDocument#block",
"block": {
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.text",
"facets": [],
"plaintext": "いくつかの特殊な経路が観測された。"
}
},
{
"$type": "pub.leaflet.pages.linearDocument#block",
"block": {
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.unorderedList",
"children": [
{
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.unorderedList#listItem",
"content": {
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.text",
"facets": [
{
"index": {
"byteEnd": 25,
"byteStart": 0
},
"features": [
{
"$type": "pub.leaflet.richtext.facet#bold"
}
]
}
],
"plaintext": "For Youフィード経由：複数の参加者が「For Youフィードで見かけた」と申告した。アルゴリズム推薦による流入が確認された。"
},
"children": []
},
{
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.unorderedList#listItem",
"content": {
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.text",
"facets": [
{
"index": {
"byteEnd": 42,
"byteStart": 0
},
"features": [
{
"$type": "pub.leaflet.richtext.facet#bold"
}
]
}
],
"plaintext": "リプライ経由での元ポスト視認：banachanは「しろくまさんのリプでNighthavenさんのポストが上がってきた（リポストを見たのではなく、元ポストを視認）」と報告した。リプライが元投稿の可視性を高める効果が示唆される。"
},
"children": []
},
{
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.unorderedList#listItem",
"content": {
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.text",
"facets": [
{
"index": {
"byteEnd": 30,
"byteStart": 0
},
"features": [
{
"$type": "pub.leaflet.richtext.facet#bold"
}
]
},
{
"index": {
"byteEnd": 87,
"byteStart": 57
},
"features": [
{
"uri": "https://bsky.app/profile/tomo-x.win/post/3md5nr5x2qk2f",
"$type": "pub.leaflet.richtext.facet#link"
}
]
}
],
"plaintext": "可視化投稿後のハブ化：tomo-xは実験途中でネットワーク図を投稿し、その後4人に伝播した。メタ的な観察行為が拡散を促進する現象が見られた。"
},
"children": []
}
]
}
},
{
"$type": "pub.leaflet.pages.linearDocument#block",
"block": {
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.horizontalRule"
}
},
{
"$type": "pub.leaflet.pages.linearDocument#block",
"block": {
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.header",
"level": 2,
"facets": [],
"plaintext": "Discussion"
}
},
{
"$type": "pub.leaflet.pages.linearDocument#block",
"block": {
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.header",
"level": 3,
"facets": [],
"plaintext": "Blueskyの拡散特性"
}
},
{
"$type": "pub.leaflet.pages.linearDocument#block",
"block": {
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.text",
"facets": [],
"plaintext": "本実験の結果は、Bluesky日本語圏の拡散が「バイラル」ではないことを示している。"
}
},
{
"$type": "pub.leaflet.pages.linearDocument#block",
"block": {
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.text",
"facets": [],
"plaintext": "Xでは、アルゴリズムが「バズ」を作る。一つの投稿が数万リポストに達することは珍しくない。しかしBlueskyでは、拡散力は元アカウントのフォロワー数に強く依存し、ユーザーごとに「島」を形成する。島を超える拡散は起きにくい。"
}
},
{
"$type": "pub.leaflet.pages.linearDocument#block",
"block": {
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.text",
"facets": [],
"plaintext": "今回の実験では、Nighthavenの2,700フォロワーから始まり、二次ハブを経由して最大7次まで連鎖したが、総参加者は143名にとどまった。青空ニュースの7,700リポストと比較すると規模は小さいが、構造的情報を持つ点で質的に異なる。"
}
},
{
"$type": "pub.leaflet.pages.linearDocument#block",
"block": {
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.text",
"facets": [],
"plaintext": "この構造は、2000年代後半のブログ圏やmixiに近い。Xの代替ではなく、別の生態系と見るべきだろう。"
}
},
{
"$type": "pub.leaflet.pages.linearDocument#block",
"block": {
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.header",
"level": 3,
"facets": [],
"plaintext": "拡散と会話"
}
},
{
"$type": "pub.leaflet.pages.linearDocument#block",
"block": {
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.text",
"facets": [
{
"index": {
"byteEnd": 70,
"byteStart": 13
},
"features": [
{
"uri": "https://bsky.social/about/blog/10-31-2025-building-healthier-social-media-update",
"$type": "pub.leaflet.richtext.facet#link"
}
]
}
],
"plaintext": "Blueskyは「より良い会話、より騒がしい会話ではなく」を標榜している（2025年10月31日公式ブログ）。本実験はリプライ必須という設計で「会話」を強制的に発生させた。"
}
},
{
"$type": "pub.leaflet.pages.linearDocument#block",
"block": {
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.text",
"facets": [
{
"index": {
"byteEnd": 147,
"byteStart": 123
},
"features": [
{
"uri": "https://bsky.app/profile/sgsk.blue/post/3md4x6knc3s2a",
"$type": "pub.leaflet.richtext.facet#link"
}
]
}
],
"plaintext": "結果として、参加ハードルが上がり、サンプルは「能動的に協力する層」に絞り込まれた。杉咲氏が指摘したように、これは「善意の協力」による拡散であり、「何これ面白い」という自然拡散とは動機構造が異なる。"
}
},
{
"$type": "pub.leaflet.pages.linearDocument#block",
"block": {
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.text",
"facets": [],
"plaintext": "しかし、この設計によって経路情報が取得できた。リポスト数だけでは見えない「形」が可視化された。会話には心理的コストがかかるが、そのコストが情報の質を担保する側面もある。"
}
},
{
"$type": "pub.leaflet.pages.linearDocument#block",
"block": {
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.header",
"level": 3,
"facets": [],
"plaintext": "連鎖的爆発が起きにくい構造"
}
},
{
"$type": "pub.leaflet.pages.linearDocument#block",
"block": {
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.text",
"facets": [],
"plaintext": "Blueskyでは連鎖的爆発が起きにくい。これが良いことなのか悪いことなのかは、何を求めるかによる。"
}
},
{
"$type": "pub.leaflet.pages.linearDocument#block",
"block": {
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.text",
"facets": [],
"plaintext": "アフィリエイトには向かない。バズを収益化するモデルはBlueskyでは機能しにくい。一方、コミュニティ形成には向いている。島の内部での信頼関係に基づく情報流通は、ノイズの少ない環境を生む。"
}
},
{
"$type": "pub.leaflet.pages.linearDocument#block",
"block": {
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.text",
"facets": [],
"plaintext": "Blueskyは「バズらないSNS」であり、それは設計通りの動作だ。「会話を取り戻す」という理念は、「拡散力を犠牲にする」という選択を含んでいる。"
}
},
{
"$type": "pub.leaflet.pages.linearDocument#block",
"block": {
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.horizontalRule"
}
},
{
"$type": "pub.leaflet.pages.linearDocument#block",
"block": {
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.header",
"level": 2,
"facets": [],
"plaintext": "Limitations"
}
},
{
"$type": "pub.leaflet.pages.linearDocument#block",
"block": {
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.text",
"facets": [],
"plaintext": "本実験にはいくつかの限界がある。"
}
},
{
"$type": "pub.leaflet.pages.linearDocument#block",
"block": {
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.unorderedList",
"children": [
{
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.unorderedList#listItem",
"content": {
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.text",
"facets": [
{
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"byteStart": 0
},
"features": [
{
"$type": "pub.leaflet.richtext.facet#bold"
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]
}
],
"plaintext": "サンプル規模：143件は統計的に小規模であり、一般化には慎重を要する。"
},
"children": []
},
{
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.unorderedList#listItem",
"content": {
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.text",
"facets": [
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"byteStart": 0
},
"features": [
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]
}
],
"plaintext": "サンプリングバイアス：リプライ必須という設計が参加ハードルを上げ、FF外交流を避ける層は参加しにくかった。"
},
"children": []
},
{
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"content": {
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.text",
"facets": [
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"byteStart": 0
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"features": [
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],
"plaintext": "動機構造の違い：「善意の協力」による拡散であり、自然拡散とは質的に異なる。"
},
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"plaintext": "起点の特性依存：Nighthavenのフォロワー規模（2,700）とクラスタ特性に結果が依存している。異なる起点からの実験では異なる構造が観測される可能性がある。"
},
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},
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"plaintext": "日付誤記：投稿本文で「1/24」と誤記し、訂正した。この混乱が参加率に影響を与えた可能性は否定できない。"
},
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}
]
}
},
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"plaintext": "Conclusion"
}
},
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"plaintext": "Bluesky日本語圏の拡散は、少数のハブに依存したツリー構造を持つ。指数関数的な爆発は起きず、初動2時間で構造の大半が決定する。"
}
},
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"plaintext": "経路情報を持つ小規模データは、経路情報を持たない大規模データより構造的情報量が多い。7,700リポストという数字は印象的だが、132本のエッジを持つ有向グラフのほうが、拡散の「形」について多くを語る。"
}
},
{
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"plaintext": "Blueskyは「バズらないSNS」だ。そしてそれは、おそらく意図された設計である。"
}
},
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},
{
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"plaintext": "Acknowledgments"
}
},
{
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"block": {
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.text",
"facets": [],
"plaintext": "本実験に参加してくださった143名の皆様に感謝する。"
}
},
{
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"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.text",
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"uri": "https://github.com/tomo-x7/bsky-repost-network",
"$type": "pub.leaflet.richtext.facet#link"
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]
}
],
"plaintext": "特に、動機構造の違いについて鋭い指摘をくださった杉咲氏、APIベースの可視化を実施しGitHubで公開してくださったtomo-x氏（https://github.com/tomo-x7/bsky-repost-network）、技術的議論に参加してくださったえるたん氏、カレーなる午後氏に謝意を表する。"
}
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},
{
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"level": 2,
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"plaintext": "References"
}
},
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"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.unorderedList",
"children": [
{
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.unorderedList#listItem",
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"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.text",
"facets": [
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"byteStart": 53
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{
"uri": "https://plurality.leaflet.pub/3mbdf4fzkac2u",
"$type": "pub.leaflet.richtext.facet#link"
}
]
}
],
"plaintext": "Nighthaven (2025). Network Perception in ATmosphere. Leaflet. https://plurality.leaflet.pub/3mbdf4fzkac2u"
},
"children": []
},
{
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.unorderedList#listItem",
"content": {
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.text",
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"features": [
{
"uri": "https://bsky.social/about/blog",
"$type": "pub.leaflet.richtext.facet#link"
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]
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],
"plaintext": "Bluesky (2025). Building Bluesky: Toward Better Conversations. https://bsky.social/about/blog"
},
"children": []
}
]
}
},
{
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"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.horizontalRule"
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},
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"plaintext": "Appendix"
}
},
{
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"level": 3,
"facets": [],
"plaintext": "図1：拡散経路のネットワーク図"
}
},
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"block": {
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.image",
"image": {
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"$link": "bafkreicfoehrw4dhdgtrdq76lpbyk5gmmfytedcrkambgxusaznwf54gq4"
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"size": 1530391
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"aspectRatio": {
"width": 2119,
"height": 10037
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}
},
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"plaintext": "表1：時間別リプライ数"
}
},
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"facets": [],
"plaintext": ""
}
},
{
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"block": {
"$type": "pub.leaflet.blocks.image",
"image": {
"$type": "blob",
"ref": {
"$link": "bafkreictdsvtshc2sf4olqozr6ftt772un74d7avckgrj7kh6s7ou2e2ja"
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"size": 66595
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"aspectRatio": {
"width": 1350,
"height": 568
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"plaintext": "元投稿"
}
},
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"$type": "pub.leaflet.richtext.facet#link"
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}
],
"plaintext": "https://bsky.app/profile/moja.blue/post/3md3gndq2vc2l"
}
}
]
}
]
},
"publishedAt": "2026-01-25T10:51:11.460Z"
}