US-Iran peace talks stall

In his latest Quick Take, Ian Bremmer warns the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is deepening into a prolonged global crisis, with rising economic and geopolitical costs and little sign of progress in US-Iran negotiations.

Ian says that while “the Iranians are willing to talk,” they are now pushing a “skinny deal” focused on reopening the strait in exchange for economic relief, while sidelining nuclear negotiations.

Even if an agreement is reached, Ian cautions the disruption will persist: “You still have a thousand ships that are backed up,” and damage to regional infrastructure means recovery could take months. He adds that the fallout will hit the US and its allies unevenly, with Europe, Asia, and the Global South much more vulnerable.

The result, Ian argues, is rising global instability and “more difficult diplomatic relations long term with the United States.”