Taiwan and the Trump-Xi summit

In this “ask ian,” Ian Bremmer explores why Taiwan is becoming a key issue ahead of the upcoming Trump–Xi meeting.

Ian says a Chinese military move is unlikely, noting that “Xi Jinping is much more risk averse” and focused on long-term strategy rather than immediate escalation.

But he warns that Beijing’s real objective may be political leverage. “What the Chinese are looking for is for the Americans to change the status quo,” Ian says, pointing to decades of US strategic ambiguity on Taiwan.

With Trump potentially open to a major deal and Xi prepared to offer significant economic incentives, Ian says the summit could test whether long-standing US policy on Taiwan is negotiable at the highest level.