🎯 First Pitch Velocity Pick – Gerrit Cole

New York Yankees ace Gerrit Cole takes the mound tonight, and his opening heat is giving us a fascinating statistical anomaly to exploit. While most flame-throwers settle into a predictable baseline early, Cole has shown an incredibly wide spread on his first pitch of the game.

Edgely Projection:

Looking for more coverage on MLB First Pitch Velocity? Check out our First Inning Page and click on the tab that says "VELO " for daily stats and predictions.

Recent Data 📊

Look at his first-pitch velocity registry over his last five starts:

• 🚀 96.2 MPH
• ⚡ 95.3 MPH
• ⚡ 95.0 MPH
• 📉 94.3 MPH
• 📉 93.7 MPH

Nic’s Pick:

These two ranges have covered 4 of his last 5 first pitches, with only the 96.2 MPH opener falling outside the number. Cole has shown a pretty wide spread on his first heater, so I’m playing both sides and fading the lone 96+ outcome.

🎯 Playing both: • 95.0–95.9 MPH (+222) • 94.9 MPH or Slower (+210)

The play tonight is to split one total unit across two specific ranges: 0.49 units on 95.0–95.9 MPH (+222) and 0.51 units on 94.9 MPH or Slower (+210). Mathematically, this locks in an even return and a healthy profit if Cole lands anywhere in his usual opening velocity bracket.

Be sure to follow Nick on X @NicLarson13 for more daily drops!