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MLB First Pitch Picks Today: Best Bets (May 5th) | MLB EDGE

edgely.bet May 5, 2026
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MLB Matchup Preview: Tuesday's Top 20 Plays

Hey baseball fans, it's TWOSDAY, and we've got a full slate of games to dive into! Let's break down the matchups and hunt for some value across the board. Here are 20 plays to keep an eye on, with all the details you need to make informed bets.

📍Note: always verify starting lineups as this blog is written before most lineups are confirmed using projected starting pitchers, lineups, and batting orders.

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New to this market? Check out our Complete Guide to MLB First Pitch Betting Strategy to understand the data and "fair odds" calculations we use for these daily picks.

Red Sox @ Tigers

Roman Anthony vs. Framber Valdez

  • Projected Outcome : In play with an 18.7% chance (fair odds +435)
  • Framber Valdez : Throws in the zone 71.1% of the time, swings generated 26.3%, balls in play 15.8%
  • Roman Anthony : Swings 30.6% of the time, puts in play 16.3%

Blue Jays @ Rays

George Springer vs. Drew Rasmussen

  • Projected Outcome : Strike with a 60.0% chance (fair odds -150)
  • Drew Rasmussen : Zone throw 70.3%, balls in play 8.1%
  • George Springer : Swings 31.9%, in play 9.7%

Athletics @ Phillies

Jacob Wilson vs. Cristopher Sánchez

  • Projected Outcome : In play with a 19.8% chance (fair odds +405)
  • Cristopher Sánchez : Zone throw 68.3%, swings 46.3%, in play 24.4%
  • Jacob Wilson : Swings 42.9%, in play 17.9%

Orioles @ Marlins

Gunnar Henderson vs. Sandy Alcantara

  • Projected Outcome : Strike with a 58.4% chance (fair odds -141)
  • Sandy Alcantara : Zone throw 73.7%, balls in play 15.8%
  • Gunnar Henderson : Swings 31.0%, in play 17.2%

Matchup: Jakob Marsee vs. Chris Bassitt

Jakob Marsee vs. Chris Bassitt

  • Projected Outcome : In play with a 17.1% chance (fair odds +485)
  • Chris Bassitt : Zone throw 68.4%, swings 18.4%
  • Jakob Marsee : Swings 15.2%, in play 9.1%

Twins @ Nationals

Byron Buxton vs. Cade Cavalli

  • Projected Outcome : In play with a 22.9% chance (fair odds +336)
  • Cade Cavalli : Zone throw 70.6%, swings 29.4%, in play 11.8%
  • Byron Buxton : Swings 53.8%, in play 23.1%

Matchup: James Wood vs. Taj Bradley

James Wood vs. Taj Bradley

  • Projected Outcome : Ball with a 55.9% chance (fair odds -127)
  • Taj Bradley : First pitch ball 55.9%

Matchup: Trent Grisham vs. Jacob deGrom

Trent Grisham vs. Jacob deGrom

  • Projected Outcome : Strike with a 72.5% chance (fair odds -263)
  • Jacob deGrom : Zone throw 77.8%, balls in play 16.7%
  • Trent Grisham : Swings 15.3%, in play 4.2%

Matchup: Nico Hoerner vs. Andrew Abbott

Nico Hoerner vs. Andrew Abbott

  • Projected Outcome : Ball with a 58.3% chance (fair odds -140)
  • Andrew Abbott : First pitch ball 58.3%

Guardians @ Royals

Steven Kwan vs. Stephen Kolek

  • Projected Outcome : Strike with a 66.6% chance (fair odds -199)
  • Stephen Kolek : Zone throw 68.4%, balls in play 10.5%
  • Steven Kwan : Swings 3.6%, in play 1.6%

Matchup: Maikel Garcia vs. Gavin Williams

Maikel Garcia vs. Gavin Williams

  • Projected Outcome : In play with a 18.4% chance (fair odds +443)
  • Gavin Williams : Zone throw 61.5%, swings 28.2%, in play 17.9%
  • Maikel Garcia : Swings 31.5%, in play 18.5%

Matchup: JJ Wetherholt vs. Brandon Sproat

JJ Wetherholt vs. Brandon Sproat

  • Projected Outcome : Ball with a 62.5% chance (fair odds -167)
  • Brandon Sproat : First pitch ball 62.5%

Matchup: Carlos Correa vs. Shohei Ohtani

Carlos Correa vs. Shohei Ohtani

  • Projected Outcome : Ball with a 50.0% chance (fair odds -100)
  • Shohei Ohtani : First pitch ball 50.0%

Matchup: Edouard Julien vs. Freddy Peralta

Edouard Julien vs. Freddy Peralta

  • Projected Outcome : Ball with a 46.5% chance (fair odds +115)
  • Freddy Peralta : First pitch ball 46.5%

Matchup: Zach Neto vs. Erick Fedde

Zach Neto vs. Erick Fedde

  • Projected Outcome : In play with a 15.7% chance (fair odds +537)
  • Erick Fedde : Zone throw 64.3%, swings 21.4%, in play 14.3%
  • Zach Neto : Swings 51.0%, in play 17.9%

Pirates @ D-backs

Jake Mangum vs. Eduardo Rodriguez

  • Projected Outcome : Ball with a 54.3% chance (fair odds -119)
  • Eduardo Rodriguez : First pitch ball 54.3%

Matchup: Nick Kurtz vs. Bubba Chandler

Nick Kurtz vs. Bubba Chandler

  • Projected Outcome : In play with a 25.5% chance (fair odds +292)
  • Bubba Chandler : Zone throw 83.3%, swings 33.3%, in play 33.3%
  • Nick Kurtz : Swings 44.1%, in play 20.6%

Matchup: J.P. Crawford vs. Bryce Elder

J.P. Crawford vs. Bryce Elder

  • Projected Outcome : Ball with a 48.6% chance (fair odds +106)
  • Bryce Elder : First pitch ball 48.6%

Padres @ Giants

Ramon Laureano vs. Logan Webb

  • Projected Outcome : Ball with a 46.3% chance (fair odds +116)
  • Logan Webb : First pitch ball 46.3%

Matchup: Jung Hoo Lee vs. Walker Buehler

Jung Hoo Lee vs. Walker Buehler

  • Projected Outcome : Ball with a 53.3% chance (fair odds -114)
  • Walker Buehler : First pitch ball 53.3%

Conclusion

There you have it, folks, 20 matchups to keep your eyes on this TWOSDAY. From potential balls to strikes and everything in between, there's plenty of action to consider. Remember to weigh the odds and probabilities as you make your picks. Enjoy the games and may the odds be ever in your favor!

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