Knicks vs 76ers 2026 NBA Playoffs Series Preview: Picks, Odds & Best Bets

East Semifinals · Game 1: May 4, 8:00 PM ET · Madison Square Garden · NBC/Peacock

The 2026 East Semifinals open with the most anticipated matchup of the round: a rematch of the 2024 conference semifinals, won by the Knicks in six. Philadelphia took a different path to get here — Embiid finally has his first playoff series win — but the destination is the same: Madison Square Garden in May, with everything on the line.

New York opens as a -7.5 Game 1 favorite and -270 to win the series. Philadelphia is listed at +220. Those numbers would look different if Embiid is healthy. Right now, that is the series-defining variable.

Series at a Glance

| New York Knicks | Philadelphia 76ers ---|---|--- Seed | #3 East | #7 East Net Rating | +5.8 | -0.2 Off Rating | 119.8 | 115.5 Def Rating | 114.0 | 115.7 Pace | 97.7 | 98.9 eFG% | 55.4% | 52.8% 3PT Rate | 43.6% | 39.9% DRB% | 76.2% | 72.2%

Game 1 line: NY -7.5 · O/U 212.5 Series price: NY -270 · PHI +220

The Embiid Question Changes Everything

The numbers say this should not be close. New York's net rating of +5.8 versus Philadelphia's -0.2 is a significant gap. The Knicks are more efficient offensively, better from three, and dominate on the defensive glass. In a full-health matchup, New York is the right side at every level.

But Joel Embiid is listed as questionable with an abdominal injury, and Embiid at 60% is still a different series than Embiid absent. He is averaging 27.0 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 4.2 assists this postseason at a 34.5% usage rate — the highest on either roster. If he plays through it, Philadelphia's offensive ceiling rises dramatically and the 76ers become a live underdog capable of stealing multiple games in a seven-game format. If he sits, this is a Maxey showcase in a series New York controls from the opening tip.

Brunson vs. Maxey Is the Real Series

Jalen Brunson (27.6 PPG / 5.7 RPG / 5.9 APG, 32.4% usage) and Tyrese Maxey (28.2 PPG / 4.2 RPG / 6.6 APG, 29.5% usage) are the two best point guards left in the East bracket. Both elevated in Round 1. Both will have big games here. The question is whose supporting cast holds up over seven.

New York's advantage is depth and the glass. Karl-Anthony Towns (19.9/11.8/3.2) gives the Knicks a size edge Philadelphia will struggle to match in the paint, and OG Anunoby (17.2/5.6/2.1) is the best wing defender either team will face. Philadelphia's Paul George (17.3/5.1/3.5) needs to show up as a genuine third option for this to go to a deciding game.

Injuries to Watch

• Josh Hart (GTD · Back bruise) — Hart's motor and rebounding are irreplaceable in New York's rotation
• Joel Embiid (GTD · Abdomen) — the series-defining variable on either side

The Pick

New York Knicks in 7. The Knicks are the better team and have home court, but Embiid healthy in a playoff series is never a safe fade. This goes seven and New York advances — but Philadelphia will win at least two games in their building regardless of Embiid's status, because Maxey and the crowd see to that.

Best bet: Track Embiid's game-time status before Game 1. If he is out, NY -7.5 is a strong lean. If he plays, the total at 212.5 looks light given his presence and two offenses capable of scoring in the 115-120 range.

Track live series odds, player props, and the full 2026 NBA Playoffs bracket at edgely.bet/nba/ — updated every game.